Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Thursday, July 17, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST, ASX futures were up by 0.5%, pointing to a bright Thursday open and a welcome turn after Wednesday’s wobble.

Here’s what went down while we were all snoozing…

Wall Street rallies

On Wall Street, the Dow climbed 0.5%, the S&P added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq also inched up 0.3%.

It all started with jitters after reports emerged that President Trump was sharpening his knives for Fed chair Jerome Powell.

That sent the S&P sliding early, but the sell-off fizzled once Trump changed tune and told reporters, “I’m not planning on doing anything” – referring to Powell’s job security.

“Powell’s removal is viewed by markets as a low-probability but high-impact event,” said TD Securities.

In stock news, JPMorgan is now so far ahead it’s basically lapping the field. JPM’s stock is worth more than BofA, Citi, and Wells Fargo combined, after pulling in US$30 billion in profit in just six months.

Elsewhere, Goldman and Morgan Stanley posted record hauls in stock trading revenue, with market volatility under Trump’s thumb proving to be quite the moneymaker.

Trump backs off Powell firing

Trump softened his tone just hours after hinting he was ready to boot Powell out of the Fed.

In private meetings, he reportedly waved around a firing letter, though one source said it was more theatre prop than executive order.

Then, standing next to Bahrain’s Crown Prince, Trump backtracked, saying it’s “highly unlikely” Powell would be fired “unless he has to leave for fraud.”

“If Trump were to force Powell out, the subsequent 24 hours would probably see a drop of at least 3% to 4% in the trade-weighted dollar,” warned Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos.

“It would be a direct affront to Fed independence.”

Dimon, Moynihan, Solomon – the Wall Street trifecta – all chimed in, stressing the Fed must stay independent, no matter who’s in charge.

Gold shines and copper’s under pressure

With all the noise, one asset quietly kept doing what it does best in times of political chaos: glisten.

Gold is now locked in a multi-year rally, consolidating between US$3,300 and US$3,400 an ounce, and analysts at BCA Research reckon it’s only a matter of time before it breaks above April’s all-time high of $3,500.

“The main driver of the yellow metal’s nearly three-year rally is still in play. Specifically, central banks’ appetite for gold remains insatiable,” said BCA’s Roukaya Ibrahim.

She reckons Trump’s chaotic policy pivots are only strengthening the case.

Meanwhile, copper’s become the latest casualty of Trump’s tariff tantrums.

With a fresh 50% duty hitting imports from August 1, there’s a rush of copper into New York warehouses, and a growing price gap between US and London metals markets.

“We remain underweight oil and copper, and very negative on iron ore,” Ibrahim said, noting that Chinese slowdown and American protectionism are a toxic mix for cyclicals.

And finally …

Back on home turf, the big ticket item lands at 11.30am AEST: Australia’s June labour force report.

Both NAB and CBA tip +20k jobs and for unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.

Also, keep an eye out for quarterly updates from Santos, Yancoal, Gold Road Resources, Genesis Minerals, and Alcoa.

Later tonight, at 10.30pm AEST, the US will drop weekly jobless claims and June retail sales.

Given all the Powell drama, even a boring number might be enough to keep markets twitchy.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

With Northern Star Resources’ (ASX:NST) takeover of De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG), the search for another Hemi is on in the Pilbara. These explorers are leading the chase.

Big pharma takes notice as Novo Nordisk puts Clever Culture Systems’ (ASX:CC5) APAS to the test.

Biocurious: With fresh grant funding, Emvision’s (ASX:EMV) Emu stroke device won’t take a step backwards.

TRADING HALTS

Andean Silver (ASX:ASL) – cap raise
Burgundy Diamond Mines (ASX:BDM) – operational update
SIPA Resources (ASX:SRI) – cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Lumos Diagnostics, Emvision and Clever Culture Systems are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.