Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, July 7, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST on Monday, ASX futures were sliding by 0.2%, pointing to a lower open.

With Wall Street desks off for July 4 celebrations, traders will have to squint at Europe for direction.

Europe under pressure

In Europe, stocks stumbled into the weekend .

The Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1%, while France’s CAC 40 slid 0.75% as travel chaos gripped the skies and tariffs loomed.

French air traffic controllers downed their tools right as everyone was trying to get away for holidays, cancelling over 1,000 flights and turning Paris departure boards into a sea of sad emojis.

Tariffs were the other weight on Europe’s back.

With a July 9 deadline closing in, Trump’s team is tightening the screws, and Brussels is scrambling to dodge a 70% import tax on EU cars.

No one’s blinking yet, but everyone’s sweating.

“Today’s a good day to take a little bit of risk off,” said Saxo’s Neil Wilson on Friday.

Trump signs ‘big, beautiful’ bill

While America was off on its annual flag-waving BBQ binge, Trump used the quiet to sign off a monster US$3.4 trillion fiscal package.

The bill slashes taxes, boosts defence, and gives clean energy the cold shoulder.

“This is a triumph of democracy on the birthday of democracy,” Trump declared from the White House balcony.

“And I have to say, the people are happy.”

And then he grabbed the tariff megaphone, promising to start sending letters spelling out who’s about to cop up to 70% import duties.

Car parts, pharmaceuticals, you name it, all in the crosshairs unless deals are done pronto.

Markets didn’t like the sound of that.

US futures dipped, and traders who had just started to believe in the rally suddenly remembered what volatility feels like.

Gold has been shining

While equities hesitated, gold strutted. The shiny stuff rose another 0.3% on Friday, locking in a 1.5% gain for the week.

It’s up more than 26% this year, and showing no signs of cooling off.

It’s not just retail punters, the big guys are buying too.

And why wouldn’t they?

As BofA’s Michael Hartnett warned, “Overbought markets can stay overbought as greed is harder to conquer than fear.”

But fear is doing a pretty good job lately.

RBA’s rates decision

Back on home turf, all eyes are on the RBA this week, with a decision due on Tuesday.

CBA reckons we’re in for a 0.25% cut taking the cash rate down to 3.60%, thanks to inflation numbers last month that surprised even the doves.

Headline CPI has cooled to 2.1%, and the trimmed mean’s dropped to 2.4%, which is right in the RBA’s comfort zone.

CBA has already pencilled in another cut for August, but Michelle Bullock will have the final word when she fronts the cameras at 3.30pm AEST, Tuesday.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

A handful of miners have started reporting early numbers from June, whetting the market’s appetite for the big show later this month.

The United States is careening toward what may be the most inflationary policy era in over 50 years, writes CEO and founder of deVere Group, Nigel Green.

IPO Watch: GemLife kicks off with a $750m bang in the biggest ASX IPO of the year.

TRADING HALTS

Argosy Minerals (ASX:AGY) – cap raise
ARC Funds (ASX:ARC) – cap raise
DigitalX (ASX:DCC) – cap raise
Nova Minerals (ASX:NVA) – cap raise
Orion Minerals (ASX:ORN) – cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Delta Lithium is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.