Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, June 30, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Monday, ASX futures were up 0.1%, enough spark to tip the market toward a firm open.

And why not? Wall Street ended Friday with all three major indexes marching higher.

S&P and Nasdaq close at record highs

The S&P 500 finished at a record close, up 0.5%. The Nasdaq matched it. and the Dow added a full 1%.

US stocks rallied even after Trump jumped on Truth Social and fired shots at Canada over its new 3% digital tax (which hits US tech giants), and threatened fresh tariffs.

Normally that would rattle markets, but not this time.

A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation print (+0.2% for the month, 2.7% year-on-year) kept rate-cut hopes alive, and Wall Street kept climbing.

Nike shares soared 15% after the company told investors the worst is behind it. The inventory mess is nearly cleaned up, and costs are getting chopped.

Berlin’s privacy watchdog warned Apple and Google to remove the Chinese chatbot DeepSeek, claiming it sucks up German user data and beams it back to China.

And Nvidia just keeps climbing, now hovering within arm’s reach of a wild US$4 trillion valuation.

US inflation still warm

The latest print on the Fed’s pet inflation gauge, the Core PCE, ticked up to 2.7% in May.

That’s hotter than expected, and the market is still pencilling in two cuts by Christmas, maybe three if the jobs data tanks.

Powell’s walking a tightrope, saying inflation might rise over winter, but also hinting the Fed’s ready to move if the data keeps sliding.

Commodities tumble, except copper

It was a week of reversals in the commodity pits.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 4%, led by a brutal unwind in oil. Brent collapsed 12% after Iran’s “retaliation”, a theatrical missile drop on an empty base.

OPEC+ is now expected to hike output by another 411,000 barrels/day in August.

Gold is still sleepwalking at US$3,273 an ounce. Silver and platinum both gave back some gains last week, though platinum, to be fair, is still up nearly 40% this year and sitting near a 14-year high.

But the real beast last week was copper.

It’s up 25% this year and still flying thanks to tightening supply, tariff hoarding, and AI’s insatiable hunger for chips.

And finally…

Back home, Monday will be pretty chill on the data front. Just the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge, which is expected to come in at 0.2%.

But things heat up Tuesday with the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI. CBA thinks it will lift from 48.3 to 49.1, still below 50, but moving in the right direction.

And all eyes are on the US jobs data later this week, the next big swing factor for the Fed.

If it disappoints, rate-cut odds shoot up. If it surprises, expect a wobble in overvalued tech stocks.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

The underrated story of mining equity markets in the past couple weeks has been uranium, with the nuclear energy fuel catching a serious bid after Sprott returned to the buyer’s table for yellowcake.

Copper has flown under the radar for investors this year as gold stocks have gained admirers and battery metals have faded into the background. That’s despite its continued run at historically high levels.

Often described as a magic metal thanks to its wealth of properties, titanium is seeing growing demand from the aerospace, automotive, medical and industrial sectors. But just what makes titanium so valuable?

A few summers ago, it would have sounded bonkers, but here we are: NATO leaders have just agreed to jack up their collective defence spending target to 5% of GDP.

No surprise then that BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, is getting more bullish about the defence sector.

TRADING HALTS

Brazilian Critical Minerals (ASX:BCM) – field trial results pending
Codeifai (ASX:CDE) – potential acquisition
Trigg Minerals (ASX:TMG) – cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Singular Health Group is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.