Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Thursday, June 26, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

ASX futures were down 0.55% at 7am AEST Thursday, pointing to a sluggish open.

Nvidia’s still breaking records

Overnight, the Dow slipped 0.25%, the S&P 500 closed flat, and the Nasdaq eked out a 0.3% gain.

The standout was Nvidia. The AI kingpin jumped 4% to smash its own record, and is now worth US$3.77 trillion. That’s pretty much entire-country GDP territory.

It’s overtaken Microsoft, miles ahead of Apple, and according to Loop Capital, it might be headed for US$6 trillion. Loop reckons Nvidia’s not just riding the wave, it is the wave. Monopoly-level pricing power, god-mode margins, and no serious rivals in sight.

Alphabet has just rolled out a new AI coding assistant to compete with OpenAI’s Codex and Anthropic’s Claude.

And Apple is dealing with a different headache altogether. Brussels slapped them with a €500 million fine, and now EU regulators are twisting their arm to fix the App Store.

Meanwhile, the broader market is starting to breathe a bit heavier. Traders reckon we’re due for a pause after recent rallies, and as Matt Maley from Miller Tabak put it, “No market moves in a straight line.”

Elsewhere, Trump is circling Fed Chair Jerome Powell like a shark once again. At a press conference in The Hague, Trump called Powell “very stupid” and “terrible”.

He said he’s got “three or four” names ready to replace Powell, and accused the Fed of keeping US borrowing costs unnecessarily high.

Oil chills out

After two days of plunging, oil prices finally climbed last night by about 1%.

Trump has declared the Middle East conflict “over” for now after US strikes “obliterated” key Iranian nuclear sites.

He also said talks with Iran will start next week, though he played down the need for any formal nuclear agreement.

BP and Shell on mega-merger rumours

BP shares spiked 10% in New York after The Wall Street Journal reported early-stage takeover talks.

BP’s been on the ropes lately, and Shell, reportedly, has been circling for months, waiting for BP’s stock and the price of crude to drop enough to make a move.

If this goes through, it would be one of the biggest deals in European corporate history, and would create a true heavyweight rival to Exxon and Chevron, especially in LNG.

Analysts reckon Shell would have to cough up a 20% premium on BP’s already chunky £58 billion valuation.

BlackRock eyes up defence sector

NATO has just committed to lifting defence spending to 5% of GDP,  a big shift that signals the West is rearming for a far more unstable world.

No surprise then that BlackRock is betting on bullets and bots.

The world’s biggest asset manager says the defence sector is gearing up for a fresh surge, and it’s not just about tanks and fighter jets anymore.

The fundie is talking AI, cyber, surveillance tech, drone warfare ie; the digital armoury of the 21st century.

BlackRock’s Investment Institute dropped a note last night outlining its bullish case: with geopolitical blocs hardening, China and the US in an AI arms race, and NATO countries jacking up budgets, defence is hot again.

For example, DroneShield (ASX:DRO) just landed a $61.6 million contract, sending its stock soaring 20% yesterday.

ETF flows into ASX defence and cyber funds are booming too.

Betashares’ Global Defence ETF (ASX:ARMR) and Cybersecurity ETF (ASX:HACK) have hauled in a combined $136 million in 2025 alone.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Health Check: UBS turns ultra-bullish on Aussie healthcare leaders

The curse has finally lifted after a year nearly devoid of public floats, with what will astonishingly be the first original gold IPO on the ASX coming to market as soon as Friday.

Biocurious: CSL’s R&D chief says drug development is like falling in love

Dengue surges as climate change bites but one Aussie drug trial has slapped symptoms.

TRADING HALTS

Astron Corporation (ASX:ATR) – work plan application update
Percheron Therapeutics (ASX:PER) – pending licensing deal
PointsBet Holdings (ASX:PBH) – outcome of scheme meeting
hummgroup (ASX:HUM) – potential acquisition offer
Xero Limited (ASX:XRO) – corporate transaction and equity raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Brightstar Resources is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.