Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Wednesday, June 25, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

ASX futures were pointing slightly higher at 7am AEST Wednesday, setting the stage for a modest rise in Aussie shares today.

Nasdaq nears record

Overnight, Wall Street bulls dusted off their running shoes and took off. The Nasdaq surged 1.4%, the S&P 500 added 1.1%, and the Dow wasn’t far behind, up 1.2%.

Even the cautious money parked in Treasuries decided to rally as yields slid, giving tech stocks the green light to run.

Microsoft was in the headlines again, this time for swinging the axe in its Xbox division.

Over at Boeing, the safety watchdogs are still asking how on earth a door panel flew off mid-air last year?

But the real fuel for Wall Street’s rally came from a blend of cooling oil prices, fading Middle East risk, and a more mellow Jerome Powell.

The Fed Reserve chair told Congress there’s no rush to cut rates, but also no reason to fear a hike.

Translation: “We’ll probably cut… but we’re not in a hurry. Unless we are.”

Markets are now betting on a September cut, with a slim chance of July if jobs data rolls over.

Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is back in its shell. The latest read from the Conference Board dropped sharply, with Americans worrying more about jobs and tariffs.

Trump’s ceasefire gamble cools oil, for now

After nearly two weeks of dodging missiles and holding our breath over Middle East blow-ups, oil traders finally exhaled.

Brent and WTI crude both dropped heavily again, this time over 5%, with WTI crashing below US$65 a barrel, the lowest since December.

Trump’s message to both Iran and Israel is: “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS,” in all caps, naturally.

And it seems to be working. No fresh attacks have been reported in the last 20 hours or so, and the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA is  able to poke around safely in Iran again.

Trump also gave China the nod to keep buying Iranian oil, while urging them to “buy plenty” from the US too.

Oil’s war risk premium has essentially collapsed.

But as one analyst put it, this isn’t a “Mission Accomplished” moment just yet. The powder keg’s still there, it’s just not lit.

Citi checks the pulse on metals

Commodities are starting to feel the pinch of a grumpy China and trade tensions.

Citi’s latest outlook paints a cautious picture, not doom and gloom, but definitely no victory lap.

Iron ore is expected to limp between US$90–$100 a tonne, weighed down by a sluggish Chinese property market and steel mills idling during the summer lull. The bank trimmed its near-term target to $90.

Copper is on edge too. If those rumoured US Section 232 tariffs hit, it could slump to US$8,800/t. But Citi reckons that could also set up a tasty entry point if the tariffs roll back.

Lithium remains stuck in the dumps. Spodumene’s been downgraded to US$600/t by Citi, with oversupply in China weighing like an anchor.

Even gold got clipped.  Citi cut its near-term target to US$3,300/oz from the April highs of US$3,500. Apparently, that was the peak.

All eyes on Aussie inflation print today

Back home, traders will be keenly watching one thing this morning: May’s CPI read.

The monthly inflation print will offer a sharper look at the services side of the equation.

NAB expects CPI to fall to 2.2% y/y from 2.4%,  while the CBA tips 2.3%.

But don’t pop the bubbly yet. The RBA has made it clear it’s not keen to act on monthly data alone.

Most economists, and markets, expect the board to wait until the full Q2 CPI lands in late July.

Still, a benign print today could turn up the heat on the rate cut conversation.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Thanks a Million: These five ASX gold hopefuls are closing in on the 1Moz milestone.

Clock ticking on Sweden’s uranium ban as Europe bets on the power of the atom.

The idea that safety only comes in one shade – the green of the US dollar – is no longer credible. We’re entering an era of multi-polar safe havens, writes Nigel Green.

TRADING HALTS

Adherium Limited (ASX:ADR)– cap raise
Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX:BMN)– cap raise
Bowen Coking Coal Ltd (ASX:BCB)– funding operations update
Develop Global Ltd (ASX:DVP)– cap raise
Firebrick Pharma Ltd (ASX:FRE)– cap raise
MTM Critical Metals Ltd (ASX:MTM)– cap raise
Rapid Critical Metals Ltd (ASX:RCM)– cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Vertex Minerals is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.