Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Friday, June 20, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

The ASX is set to open lower this morning, with futures pointing down by 0.5%.

Wall Street was closed for Juneteenth, but European stocks stumbled, oil prices kept climbing, and Donald Trump stirred the geopolitical pot again.

Europe slips as BoE freezes

Traders across Europe were on edge overnight, and it showed.

London’s FTSE slid almost 0.6%, Germany’s DAX dropped over 1%, and Paris tumbled further by 1.3%.

At the centre of it all was a nervous pause from the Bank of England, which held interest rates at 4.25% despite cracks starting to show in the UK jobs market.

It wasn’t a clean decision either. Three out of nine officials wanted a cut, a reminder that the BoE is walking a tightrope between sticky inflation and economic drag.

But experts say that if crude keeps marching north, Threadneedle Street won’t be in any hurry to start cutting rates.

Trump stokes the fire, oil jumps higher again

Brent crude pushed above US$78 a barrel, adding more heat to what’s already becoming a pressure cooker of a market.

Israel’s hits on Iranian nuclear targets spooked traders, but it’s Trump’s vague-but-ominous promise that has everyone on high alert:

“I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

His spokesperson says he’ll decide “within two weeks” whether to join Israel’s campaign.

Markets have heard that tune before, but energy desks aren’t laughing.

Goldman Sachs says there’s already a US$10 geopolitical premium baked into Brent.

GS believes that if Iran’s oil supply gets choked, or worse, the Strait of Hormuz shuts, we’re talking $120–130 oil.

Nigel Green says the hit will be fast

deVere CEO Nigel Green reckons markets are dangerously out of sync.

“If the US joins in, forget fundamentals. It’ll be sentiment first, repricing second, and panic third,” he warned.

First on the chopping block will be tech stocks, emerging markets, high-beta names.

And if it happens out of hours? Liquidity dries up fast. That’s when markets start falling fast down the stairs.

Green is urging investors to rethink allocations, stress-test for shocks, and stay sharp.

Because if oil keeps rising, central banks might shelve those rate cuts and flip into defence mode.

And that, he says, would be a double blow to already stretched equity valuations.

And finally…

It’s a light one on the calendar.

Japan’s CPI lands at 9:30am AEST, followed by a speech from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Later tonight, the US drops its Philly Fed index and May leading indicators, the first real post-Fed data points.

All eyes, though, are on Geneva, where the EU, UK and Iran are meeting behind closed doors for “exploratory” nuclear talks.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

These ASX mining juniors could be in the crosshairs as 2025’s next takeover targets according to our expert panel.

The rise of fresh tensions in the Middle East has put the spotlight on the minerals needed for military operations.

Health Check: On Garfield the Cat Day, the biotech sector purrs with deals and breakthroughs

TRADING HALTS

African Gold Ltd (ASX:A1G) – resource upgrade
Alligator Energy Ltd (ASX:AGE) – cap raise
Estrella Resources Ltd (ASX:ESR) – exploration update
Microba Life Sciences Ltd (ASX:MAP) – cap raise
Prominence Energy Ltd (ASX:PRM) – acquisition & cap raise
Universal Biosensors Inc (ASX:UBI) – cap raise
Magellan Asset Management (AASF) – operational issues
Savana US Small Caps Active ETF (ASX:SVNP) – IT/maker disruptions

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Arika Resources is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.