Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Friday, May 16, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

ASX to climb as Wall Street rides the rate-cut hopes

The ASX is eyeing its eighth straight win, with futures up 1% at 7AM AEST.

Overnight, the S&P 500 put on 0.4%, notching its fourth straight gain, while the Nasdaq stumbled 0.18%, weighed down by big tech.

Traders are starting to punt on not just one, but possibly two rate cuts from the Fed this year due to weak data.

Data released last night showed that US retail sales lost puff, and factory production went backwards for the first time in six months.

Producer prices dropped the most in five years, suggesting companies are quietly eating the cost of tariffs rather than passing it on.

Meta dropped over 2% after news its next-gen AI model, named “Behemoth,” has been delayed again. Turns out teaching machines to think might be harder than expected.

Meanwhile, crypto exchange Coinbase has been hit by a dirty inside job; hackers bribed overseas support staff to leak sensitive customer info, then demanded a $20 million in ransom (in bitcoins) to keep it quiet.

No passwords or crypto were pinched, but names, ID numbers, and account details were exposed.

Coinbase spotted the breach earlier, fired the rogue staff, and says it won’t pay a cent to the attackers. Still, patching up the mess could cost up to $400 million.

Coinbase’s stock price dropped more than 7% as the market digested the fallout.

Powell’s dusting off the Fed’s playbook

Over at the Fed, Jerome Powell says he’s ready to tweak the wording on how the Fed thinks about inflation and unemployment.

The old playbook, designed when interest rates were rock-bottom, might not cut it anymore, said Powell.

Back in 2020, the Fed basically said, “We’ll let inflation run a bit hot for a while to make up for the times they were too cold,” and promised not to hike rates just because heaps of people had jobs.

But now, with the economic weather changing, Powell reckons it’s time to update the playbook to something a bit more flexible.

Commodities: Oil slides, Gold glitters

Oil slid again,down 2%, as talk of a US-Iran nuclear deal gains traction.

More Iranian barrels would flood a market already swimming in OPEC+ production. Analysts reckon we could be looking at 200,000 to 300,000 extra barrels a day if sanctions lift.

Gold, on the other hand, found its shine.

It jumped 1.7% as investors reached for safety after some soft US data and Putin’s no-show at Ukraine peace talks.

Lower interest rate expectations and a dip in the greenback helped, too.

COMMODITY/FOREX/CRYPTO MARKET PRICES

• Gold: US$3240.20/oz (+1.7%)
• Silver: US$32.68/oz (+1.3%)
• Iron Ore: US$101.50/t (-0.3%)
• Nickel (3mth): US$15,871/t (+0.864%)
• Copper (3mth): US$9606.5/t (+0.073%)
• Zinc: US$2728.65/t (-1.10%)
• Lithium carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot: US$8964 (0.15%)
• Oil (WTI): US$61.69/b (-2.3%)
• Oil (Brent): US$64.60 (-2.25%)
• AUD/USD:  0.6405 (-0.42%)
• Bitcoin: US$102,811 (-0.5%)

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Antimony has been on everyone’s lips after China imposed export restrictions on the defence-vital mineral, with prices surging six-fold since 2023. Check out which ASX companies are positioned to take advantage.

National Palliative Care Week has brought some very promising clinical results in the fight against pancreatic and lung cancer, as Tim Boreham reports in the latest Health Check.

Trading Halts

Alvo Minerals (ASX:ALV) – proposed acquisition of Lavra Velha Project
Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) – cap raise
Australian Bond Exchange (ASX:ABE) – cap raise
Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX:CHM) – new data on ADVENT-AML Phase 1B clinical trial
Codrus Minerals (ASX:CDR) – cap raise
Emu (ASX:EMU) – results of a general meeting
GreenX Metals (ASX:GRX) – cap raise
Hastings Technology Metals (ASX:HAS) – Yangibana joint venture with Wyloo
HeraMED (ASX:HMD) – customer update and its go-to-market strategy in the US
Medallion Metals (ASX:MM8) – cap raise
Uvre (ASX:UVA) – cap raise
White Cliff Minerals (ASX:WCN) – cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Prospect Resources is a Stockhead advertiser, they did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.