Nuix falls after another downgrade, but these stocks upgraded their guidance

Another week, another downgrade for Nuix (ASX:NXL).

The forensic data company downgraded its FY21 guidance for the second time in six weeks at the same time a handful of other ASX stocks went in the other direction.

Nuix gives another downgrade

Nuix is now forecasting pro forma revenue of $173-$182 million having previously estimated $180-185 million on 21 April and $193.5 million in its IPO prospectus.

While its pro forma earning remained unchanged at $64.6 million and is ironically slightly higher than its prospectus, shares lost another 10 per cent.

There was arguably no worse a time to announce another downgrade than with the scrutiny surrounding the company’s governance, its forecasts and relationship with controversial co-founder Tony Castagna who it only cut ties with last week.

Today the company blamed the “expected timing of closure of some upsell opportunities and new potential customers” and all but said another downgrade was not impossible.

CEO Rod Vawdrey said he expected to capture revenue from those customers even if not before June 30 and that he remained confident in the long term outlook for the company.

Nuix (ASX:NXL) share price chart

ASX stocks providing upgrades

In a sharp contrast to the Nuix downgrade, a handful of other stocks impressed with upgrades or even formal results.

Real estate manager and investor Dexus (ASX:DXS) was one estimating it would deliver “distribution per security growth” of approximately 3 per cent whereas it had previously estimated little chance from FY20.

“Today’s upgrade is a result of better than expected outcomes across the underlying property portfolio as well as delayed settlements for asset sales and other initiatives across the business,” said CEO Darren Steinberg.

GR Engineering Services (ASX:GNG) was another to upgrade its guidance. Having previously tipped FY21 revenue between $340 and $360 million it now expects somewhere between $370 million and $390 million.

The company credited its pipeline of work and consequential cash generation and noted this happened despite logistical issues with international shipping.

Both companies anticipated releasing formal FY21 results in mid-August rose this morning in sharp contrast to Nuix.

Dexus (ASX:DXS) and GR Engineering Services (ASX:GNG) share price chart

FY21 results

One company releasing formal FY21 results was Keytone Dairy (ASX:KTD) – the company uses the New Zealand financial year (April 1-March 31) thereby making today (two months after the end of the financial year) the deadline for reporting.

The company made its first positive earnings result since ASX listing and made 125 per cent sales growth, having recorded $22.5 million in FY20 and $50.7 million in FY21.

CEO Danny Rotman labelled the result “extraordinary” in light of the disruption COVID-19 had on the company.

Rounding out the list is diversified services company Thorn Group (ASX:TGA) which you may know as the owner of retailer Radio Rentals but recently switched to an online-only model. It has diversified into B2B lending solutions.

The company made a $81.1 million loss in FY20 but today reported a profit of $8.4 million.

It credited its shift to a “digital first” business model in respect to both Radio Rentals and its finance business.