FREE WHELAN: The price of the US 10-year controls the world and it’s already on holiday
In this Stockhead series, investment manager James Whelan, managing director Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management, offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends in domestic and global markets. From macro musings to the metaverse and everything in between, Whelan offers his distilled thoughts on the hot topic of the day, week, month or year, from the point of view of a professional money manager.
Good afternoon all,
A little late and a little busy on the note as we put the final ribbon on the last deal of the year. Another successful venture and thanks to all who participated.*
*Ed: See Wellnex Life (ASX:WNX) (Lead Manager). Placement circa $18m
Now for November… and wow what a blindingly good month.
If you’d like to see two charts that are closely related please observe:
…and when the yield on it moves from ~5% to ~4.25% you see markets put on a casual “everything rally.”
And, as I said at the beginning of the month, you’ll enjoy being invested.
Again, beware of the folks out there saying “since 2008… what else happened in 2008??? hmmmm???” You know the type. Steer clear of them like potholes.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year for this sort of thing to get pedalled around.
That being said, this is fascinating…
That is, if you can find the stamina to understand it, it’s fascinating.
Effectively it echoes something I’ve said before, that returns on markets tend to drop from the first cut onwards. Because usually the first cut is for some reason usually not good and the process of a recession is already started. Sell into pre-recession and buy when it’s declared.
Just one problem sums up 2023 and that’s the fact everyone has been predicting a recession this year (since last year) and it’s now December and I don’t see no recession.
I’ll put my hand up and say that yes I was one of those too. Consensus recession.
Amazingly, and I can’t figure out how, but a strong month usually means a strong year to follow – 13.3% up on average and higher 80% of the time.
Here’s a link to the podcast to fill in the details you’re after, especially on gold which sees fresh highs on dropping yields and increased geopolitical tensions (apparently).
Finally here’s a little something with Chairman Mao absolutely losing it when he sees Henry Kissinger’s wife for the first time.
My favorite Kissinger video was when he introduced his wife to Mao, who got his mind absolutely blown by the height difference 😅 pic.twitter.com/G48eBdYxAO
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 30, 2023
Stay safe and all the best,
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