It was the end of a birthday weekend for the ages, in which I ate, drank, golfed and watched every one of my sports teams win.

Ground level for the Swans vs. Bombers was special and a big thanks to every one of my beautiful, out-of-touch friends who offered members/box tickets/that fenced off seat in the Ladies Stand with Whelan! painted in red and white on the back – but there’s just something infinitely more revealing about having my little tribe 15 rows back, a tray full of warm beer or mixed wines and rolls of sausage AND the chance to really offer the players some gentle, constructive criticism.

I’m better able to contribute when embedded among the crowd.

Speaking of staying with the crowds, I’ve clocked two things this weekend that make me think one trade is back on track and another trade should be added.

Firstly, the latter:

Have a look at this. Just look at it.

LOOK AT IT, AGAIN!!

The ARK Innovation ETF just posted its biggest week of inflows in over a year. Not only US$534m added to it but it puts it in the top 1% of inflows for the ETF space and it’s, count it, fifth straight run of positive flows.

A good friend of mine and market legend Jonathan Pain (we’ve had him on the BIP Show podcast and I used to serve him beers at the Glenorie RSL in 2002) started his newsletter this week with: “I’ve just bought ARKK”.

I almost spat my coffee out.

But we’re on a tight budget, so I swallowed.

This fund has been the poster child of free money loose valuations in tech which history will show all but defined the Pandemic era.

Late last year I went loud and proud saying “Don’t do what Cathie does” as a way of warning that the head of the ARK Fund’s days in the sun were ending. True enough this year all but one holding in the fund was behind (as at late last week).

Jonathan has been front row centre warning about the shifting sands of equity valuations causing some castles to return to the earth. Now PAIN is on the bid AS WELL AS some serious loose change is hitting the fund, you know there’s a reason to have a gander at it:

I look at this list and… well… it’s quite a list. At one stage tech becomes deep value I guess.

ARK in the USA

If you want to buy ARK in the USA then I’d use the Interactive Brokers platform. I haven’t talked about it much but it’s what we use and it’s a bit tricky to get set. Happy to help anyone needing help as always but if I could offer one very basic piece of advice it’s to ensure your platform is capable of trading offshore. Otherwise you’re always going to be constantly looking for a locally listed ETF to replicate what you need in the States.

Funnily enough I had the rep from Allan Gray in on Monday morning (they don’t really like the badge “Deep Value Investors” so I won’t call them that)… They think tech has another way down before it looks appropriate – meaning if you want to have a go at ARK then set a tight stop and be quick to grab the cash if it’s there for you soon.

Speaking of a local ETF getting it done after me making me look like a fool for a few weeks and that’s FUEL, which should go real okay if a breakout on oil continues.

WTI CFDs- Courtesy TradingView

 

WTF, WTI – FUEL ETF, Obv.

WTI is in a breakout so I’m still thinking it’s good to be holding the big stocks that benefit from those rising prices. Shell, BP, Total etc. All in the local ETF FUEL.

And I am of the school which strongly believes oil still has a long way to go as well.

Finland, Finland, Finland

Finland is looking to join NATO. “Why do they get preference over Ukraine?” I hear you ask. It’s because of this NATO rule on entry.

Finland will have its gas cut off, of which 94% is Russian. However it’s only 6% of energy usage and so we’ll watch this fine balance of a stretched market walk the tightrope once more. Finland are prepped for this though.

They also have the largest artillery in Europe, just quietly.

So… buy the pop in ARKK with a tight trailing stop, long oil still… and very, very long Finnish howitzers.

Know thyself; know thy Klopp

But if you want to know how to calmly manage a team through a penalty shootout then follow the Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp with a step by step thread on how he was prepped.


Good luck and stay safe,

James

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – MAY 14: Sam Draper of the Bombers is absolutely manhandled by James Rowbottom and Peter Ladhams of the Swans during the round nine AFL match between the Sydney Swans and the Essendon Bombers at Sydney Cricket Ground on May 14, 2022 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

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