Criterion: Buy, hold or sell CBA? Investors face their NFY resolution

• The CBA clearly is overvalued on conventional metrics, but selling is not as simple as that
• ‘Expensive’ stocks can remain so for months – or even years
• The CBA’s worthy peers could be cheaper alternatives

Happy New Financial Year (NFY) – a time of quiet reflection on the next fiscal stanza between scrambling for receipts to justify Netflix as a tax deduction.

As part of their soul searching, investors may resolve to take profits on shares that have done well.

Like the New Year’s resolution to drink only on weekends rather than days ending with a ‘y’, NFY intentions dissipate just as quickly.

But there’s one decision that won’t go away – and its got nothing to do with joining a gym.

Should they sell their shares in the Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) after last financial year’s shock 48% share romp?

With the stock down about 5% over the last week, some investors already have lightened up on the bank, rather than with the barbells.

Trapped in a “virtuous cycle”

A chorus of expert voices has decried the CBA is chronically overvalued: mainly the fund managers who sold too soon and trashed their 2024-25 performance.

In summary, the world’s most expensive bank is such because overseas institutions like Australia. The CBA – also the biggest ASX stock- is the obvious proxy for our great nation.

As more instos pile into the CBA, there’s more buying because of the need to maintain index weighting. The CBA now accounts for 10% of the ASX200 index.

This is all very well until a typical bank-like event – such a housing downturn – disrupts this self-reinforcing loop.

In the words of Atlas Funds Management’s Hugh Dive: “it’s a virtuous cycle until it isn’t”.

One pillar, three ‘stumps’

CBA’s $300 billion valuation makes its Four Pillars peers look more like three ‘stumps’.

On Morgan Stanley’s numbers, the CBA trades on an estimated current-year earnings multiple of 29 times, compared with 20.4 times for its Westpac (ASX:WBC) , National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX:ANZ) .

This compares with a sector average multiple of 12.5 times over the last decade.

Of course, most retail investors hold the banks for their franked dividends.

On this note, the banks trade on an average forward yield of 4.8%, or 5.8% grossed up (accounting for the franking).

The CBA’s yield has declined to a mediocre 2.7% (3.9% grossed up). Put in context, a risk-free 12-month CBA term deposit pays 4%.

The case for buying

To be fair, the CBA has kept its nose out of trouble – and inarguably it’s one of the world’s best managed banks.

Our ‘stronger for longer’ housing boom sure does help.

‘Expensive’ shares can remain so for years. This is evidenced by this year’s record-breaking run of radiology imaging play ProMedicus (ASX:PME) . Or, globally, AI hero Nvidia.

So is the next stop for CBA is $200 per share. Or why not $300?

The CBA’s valuation could be supported if the Goldilocks economy thesis pans out, with tempering inflation enabling more rate cuts (as is expected).

Meanwhile, the other three ‘Four Pillars’ have taken in turns to court disaster and controversy or lose share in the key home mortgage market.

Banking on better returns elsewhere

That said, the ‘three stumps’ are excellent banks by global standards. They also have a solid track record of recovering from despite their whoopsies.

For those seeking consistent income, they work on a September balance date so pay their divs at a different time to the June-balancing CBA.

Still unconvinced? The non-Big Four banks could be a credible alternative. That said, they may lack the relative prudential strength and have a higher cost of capital.

Investors in the out-of-sorts Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) enjoyed a 40% bounce share bounce last financial year, secondly only to the CBA’s 49% surge.

MyState (ASX:MYS) is an exposure to the gentrifying Tasmania market, as well as the Rockhampton and Bundaberg regions.

A pure-play business lender Judo Capital Holdings (ASX:JDO) enjoys higher interest margins than on a mortgage, but its risk managers need to be on top of their game.

So far, they have been.

PNG bank Kina Securities (ASX:KSL) trades on a PE of eight times and an 8% yield.

Perversely for the impoverished island nation, Kina has capital adequacy that would put the Big Four to shame.

This story does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decision.