AI set to keep global economy expanding in 2026

Artificial intelligence has shifted from a promising technology to a primary engine of economic growth for the foreseeable future.

The extraordinary level of spending on data centres, next-generation chips and the infrastructure surrounding them is now powerful enough to sustain expansion in the United States and worldwide through 2026.

The evidence is already visible. US figures show that without technology-driven investment, growth earlier this year would have been close to flat. Instead, output keeps rising even as payroll gains soften.

AI projects require immense capital but relatively few employees. Nvidia, for example, employs about 36,000 people yet generates trillions of dollars in market value and drives trade across Asia, Europe and the US. This explains why job data can appear weak while the broader economy stays strong.

The trend is global. Analysts expect AI infrastructure spending to climb at more than 30% annually, supporting record chip exports from Taiwan and South Korea and swelling order books at Europe’s ASML. Taiwan’s semiconductor shipments have leapt by double digits this year and South Korea’s exports have returned to pre-2022 levels. Utilities report a parallel surge in power demand as data-centre electricity use accelerates.

No previous technology cycle has had such sweeping macroeconomic impact. AI is now a central driver of worldwide growth.

Fierce competition among US tech leaders to build computing power, government incentives from Washington to Tokyo, and relentless demand for the hardware that supports machine learning are fuelling the investment wave. Every major economy wants a stake in this build-out, ensuring another year of double-digit spending.

Public policy is amplifying the race. In the US, the CHIPS Act and related programmes are releasing billions of dollars for semiconductor capacity and energy infrastructure.

The European Union is funding next-generation fabrication plants at unprecedented levels, while Japan and South Korea are providing tax breaks and fast-track permits to secure their positions in the supply chain. This global policy push keeps capital flowing.

The effects reach far beyond the technology sector. Data-centre power needs in the US are projected to double by 2030, spurring investment in grids and renewables. The AI build-out is also creating heavy demand for metals, construction materials and shipping, giving world trade a lift even as traditional manufacturing slows.

Investors who treat AI as a short-term fad risk overlooking a structural shift. Currencies, equities, commodities and bond markets are already being shaped by this surge, and that influence will intensify in 2026. Energy supply issues and regulatory questions may eventually moderate the pace, but they will not outweigh the profitability case next year.

With this level of investment, a US or global recession in 2026 looks unlikely. Artificial intelligence is redefining how economies grow and how markets move.

It’s not just the dominant investment story of the coming year; it’s the clearest macroeconomic force of the decade ahead.

Nigel Green, is the group CEO and founder of deVere Group, an independent global financial consultancy.

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