Here’s how a ‘Doom Loop’ has Arthur Hayes claiming $1m Bitcoin can still happen
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While Bitcoin attracts more predictions than a fortune tellers’ convention, one BTC downside figure that seems to be reaching a level of consensus is US$10k. Meanwhile former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes sees a massive rally ahead, if you’re patient.
At the time of writing, the OG crypto asset has dipped back under US$20k and is down about 71% from its November 2021 $69k all-time high. And from scanning through Crypto Twitter recently, it’s clear that many pundits of various levels of professionalism seem to think Bitcoin could head as low as US$10k.
And that’s partly based on the grain-of-salt premise that previous bear market drawdowns sent the asset tumbling by about 80%-85% from prior peaks… which brings 10k right into play.
Based on the results of Bloomberg’s latest MLIV Pulse survey, retail investors and Wall Street types alike think the Bitcoin/crypto market carnage ain’t over yet.
Conducted from July 5-8, the survey asked 950 investors where they see Bitcoin’s price going. When asked: “Which level will Bitcoin trade at first? $10K or $30K?”, 60 per cent responded they think it will drop to $10k first.
Bloomberg’s survey also revealed that about 28 per cent of respondents believe cryptocurrencies are the future of finance, while 20 per cent think they’re garbage, while the majority are at least slightly sceptical about crypto on the whole.
Interestingly, though, it’s reportedly the institutional/professional investors who are the most positive about Bitcoin and crypto’s long-term outlook.
While probably not one of those surveyed, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, is a seasoned pro investor – particularly in the crypto space – and as usual his thoughts are making headlines.
Sharing the Euro (EUR) daily chart compared with the US dollar on Twitter yesterday, Hayes claimed that a “Doom Loop” has begun in the macroeconomic landscape.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 11, 2022
This is not Bitcoin, Ethereum or even a shitcoin. It’s the Euro against the Dollar pic.twitter.com/0kPyAnrtfu
— Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. (drpatel.eth) (@ParikPatelCFA) July 11, 2022
The European currency has now reached parity with the US for the first time since 2003, triggered by the Ukraine-Russia conflict, sky-rocketing global inflation and central bank interest-rates hiking.
Hayes’s Doom Loop scenario sees the Euro and US dollar both depreciating in favour of “hard” savings commodities such as gold and Bitcoin, with central banks resorting to Yield Curve Control (YCC) amid out of control inflation.
Elaborating further, Hayes wrote: “as gold succeeds so will Bitcoin… Why should any central bank “save” in any Western fiat currency, when their savings can be expropriated arbitrarily and unilaterally by the operators of the digital fiat monetary networks?”
Back in early June, Hayes was half predicting a Bitcoin bottom of US$25k. Hmm… how’s that going, then? To be fair, a lot’s happened with the “crypto contagion” since, and he did caveat that none of this is “an exact science”. Well, obvs.