Forget $1.5 million Bitcoin – DigitalX sees more realistic catalysts for 2025

• DigitalX questions 2030 mega BTC forecasts but sees credible upside from institutional flows
• Large untapped capital pools remain on the sidelines, including super funds and sovereign wealth
• US fiscal policy and trade talks offer supportive conditions heading into year-end

Special Report: Bitcoin is gaining ground again, now trading near USD $110,000 after rising more than 50% in the past year. But while bold forecasts for $1.5 million by 2030 have reignited headlines, DigitalX is urging investors to focus on the more grounded forces likely to shape the market in coming years.

“With the ongoing adoption of artificial intelligence, a transformative technology rivalling the industrial revolution, I prefer to steer clear of the speculative projections out to 2030,” said Alex Nagorskii, portfolio manager at DigitalX (ASX:DCC).

“That said, I recognise the significant untapped potential in large capital pools, corporate treasuries, superannuation funds and sovereign wealth funds that currently lack Bitcoin exposure. These could serve as powerful catalysts for future growth.”

Eyes on realistic tailwinds

Rather than fixating on decade-long price targets, DigitalX is focusing on immediate catalysts such as US fiscal policy shifts and improving global risk sentiment.

“The Department of Government Efficiency initiative to curb US deficit spending appears to have faltered, with the Big Beautiful Bill poised to add $3 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next decade,” Nagorskii said.

“This is likely to weaken the US dollar further, potentially boosting Bitcoin’s value in response.”

At the same time, financial markets are growing optimistic following progress in US-China trade negotiations this week. After a year marked by diplomatic strain and risk-off sentiment, the easing of tensions could support further upside across digital assets.

“This week’s progress in US-China trade negotiations offers encouraging signals, suggesting we have now seen the worst of the disputes that have weighed on risk assets throughout the year,” Nagorskii added.

Capital rotation is only beginning

DigitalX argues that Bitcoin’s largest upside potential lies not in extreme market predictions but in the reallocation of institutional capital that is already underway.

With only 1 million BTC left to be mined and trillions in global assets still not allocated to digital currencies, even a small shift in institutional flows could have outsized effects.

“There is still a huge delta between Bitcoin’s current market cap and the trillions of dollars sitting in traditional portfolios that do not yet hold any allocation,” Nagorskii said.

DigitalX, which manages Australia’s first spot Bitcoin ETF (ASX: BTXX), is well placed to serve this emerging demand.

As the only ASX listed digital asset fund manager, the company offers a regulated, local gateway for wholesale and institutional investors seeking digital asset exposure with professional safeguards in place.

“Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class and beginning to behave differently to equities or bonds. That diversification benefit is becoming hard for institutions to ignore,” Nagorskii said.

This article was developed in collaboration with DigitalX, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.