Research suggests men’s cancer risk will rise by 84% by 2050

Global cancer rates in men are predicted to climb by up to 84 per cent over the next three decades, says the research team behind a troubling new study.

Words by Mia Erickson for Body + Soul

The latest findings from Charles Sturt University Rural Health Research Institute academics indicate a worrying trend for men around the world, with Australia’s male population sadly boasting the highest incidence of cancer diagnosis of any country in the study.

The study, Burden of 30 cancers among men: Global statistics in 2022 and projections for 2050 using population-based estimates, analysed cancer statistics for men in 185 countries and territories worldwide, exploring the trends related to 30 different types of cancer in men, including the mortality-to-incidence ratios of each.

The study’s method

Using the 2022 data pinpointing and projecting the trends associated with cancer in men, the mortality-to-incidence ratios for each country and territory (MIRs) were calculated by dividing age-standardised mortality rates by cancer incidence rates.

According to the research, while the rates of cancer in men appear to be rising exponentially, men were also found to exhibit a higher prevalence of modifiable risk factors, meaning with the right standardised health intervention tactics, many countries could lower the cancer incidence. The two most notable modifiable risk factors commonly exhibited by men are smoking and alcohol consumption – two health habits linked to lower survival rates in cancer patients.

The concerning findings

Given comprehensive evidence and data relating to global cancer incidence among men is sparse, this research offers a much-needed glimpse into the state of men’s health around the world.

In men aged 65 and older, the 2022 data indicates an MIR of 61 per cent, which is a worryingly low survival rate. For rarer cancers such as pancreatic cancer, the MIR was even higher, sitting at 91 per cent, and in countries with a low human development index, the average MIR was found to be 74 per cent.

Overall, cancer cases in men around the world are projected to increase by 84 per cent from 10.3 million to 19 million, with deaths projected to increase from 5.4 million to 10.5 million.

According to co-author of the study Dr Kedir Ahmed, though the results revealed Australia to have the highest incidence of cancer in men, our mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was not as alarming.

“Our study found that Australia has 514.3 cases per 100,000 people, making it the country with the highest incidence rate of cancer from all 185 studied,” says the Research Fellow of Rural Public Health (Epidemiologist) with the Charles Sturt Rural Health Research Institute

“Although, while the incidence of cancer is higher in Australian men, the MIR here is one of the lowest in the world meaning less cancer-related deaths.”

Given the absence of male-specific screening programs, such as for the detection of prostate cancer, this collaborative research aims to increase awareness of the growing prevalence of the disease in men globally, subsequently inciting further research and action from a public health perspective.

“Alongside these factors, we forecast an increase in cancer cases globally from 10.3 million to 19 million between 2022 and 2050, as well as a projected spike in cancer-related deaths from 5.4 million to 10.5 million over the same timeframe,” he says.

Lung cancer still a huge problem

“Of the 30 cancer types in the study, lung cancer will likely remain the leading type of both cases and deaths.”

With such a high indication of modifiable risk factors in male cancer patients, the research team are calling for several interventions to be made to reduce the mortality rates associated with the disease.

Across the globe, greater funding and attention are required to strengthen health infrastructure, enhance workforce quality for men at risk, and improve overall access to public health education.

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