Health Check: Our flu recovery prognosis is positive, CSL tells investors

• CSL’s Seqirus vaccine arm has fronted investors in a major investor roadshow
• Tryptamine raises $6.1 million for binge eating disorder trial
• Clinical trial updates flow faster than free Birdcage champers

CSL (ASX:CSL) has kicked off its US Capital Markets Day – actually a three-day fiesta of prezzos and site visits – with an upbeat take on the prospects of recovery for its Seqirus vaccine arm.

The company stands by its expectation of a medium-term recovery, which is nothing new. But management notes Seqirus’s growing market share and the intensifying push in the US to counter vaccine misinformation.

On a webcast this morning, Seqirus general manager Dave Ross said the current “headwinds” should be put in context.

“Our business, our strategy and our prospects for growth are very promising,” he said.

On market share, Seqirus notes it accounted for 42% of the seasonal and pandemic flu market in 2024, compared with 30% in 2017.

Seqirus’s bigger rival, coyly dubbed ‘competitor A’ saw its share fall from just over 50% to around 49%.

The share of smaller ‘competitor B’ halved, to 9%.

Over roughly that time, Seqirus’s revenue has grown from US$751 million to US$2 billion.

Low jab rates nothing to sneeze about

The company says the flu afflicts 400 million to 800 million adults annually. Up to 41 million cases are in the US, with 52,000 deaths.

In the pandemic era, 170 million Americans were vaccinated; now the figure stands at just over 100 million.

“This is staggering from a public health perspective and one that will not go without significant consequences and costs [to the health system],” Ross said.

Reflecting this view, over the same time hospital admissions have grown in almost perfect symmetry to the fall in jabs.

In the US, the company says, organised resistance to the Trump/RFK Junior endorsed vaccine hesitancy is a growing force.

Vocal opponents include Families Fighting Flu Inc, while insurance payers have steadfastly continued to fund jabs.

Meanwhile, the vaccination decline has steadied in Seqirus’s key non-US geographies of Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the UK.

In pandemic times this was known as ‘flattening the curve’.

Seqirus is also eyeing expansion into the US$500 million a year US paediatric flu market.

Management also sees opportunities in geographies including the Nordic nations, Japan and South Korea.

CSL shares last Thursday tumbled after the company deferred the planned demerger of Seqirus. Management also downgraded full year revenue and earnings prospects.

Investors were containing their enthusiasm this morning.

Tryptamine raises capital …

Psychedelic drug developer Tryptamine Therapeutics (ASX:TYP) has raised $6.1 million via a placement, to further its binge-eating treatment trial being carried out at Melbourne’s Swinburne University.

The company cites strong support for the raising, including from co-founder and biggest shareholder Dr William Garner who chipped in $572,000.

Subject to shareholder approval, directors including chairman Herwig Janssen, CEO Jason Carroll, Daniel Tillett and Chris Ntoumenopoulos have collectively committed a further $470,000.

The deal was done at 3.4 cents per share, an 8% discount to the 15-day weighted price.

The world’s first study of its ilk, the Swinburne trial tests the company’s intravenously infused psilocin candidate, TRP-8803.

Janssen says the funding will accelerate the company’s clinical and commercial milestones.

The company hopes to be able to fast track additional clinical trials “in a broader range of high-value neuropsychiatric indications.”

… while Nanosonics hands it back 

Unusually for a life sciences play, device maker Nanosonics (ASX:NAN) has so much cash that it has mounted a $20 million share buyback.

Nanosonics said the move reflected the company’s replete balance sheet – $161 million of cash and no debt – and management’s confidence in its business performance and long-term growth outlook.

Nanosonics long has marketed Trophon, its high-level disinfection device for medical probes. Next year it launches its updated variant Coris, for trickier flexible endoscopes.

“The board is confident Nanosonics has sufficient cash reserves to fund its strategic initiatives,” CEO Michael Kavanagh told holders at today’s AGM.

These include the continued growth of the Trophon business,  the “controlled market release” of Coris and potential bolt-on acquisitions.

Nanosonics reported revenue of $198 million for the year to June 30 2025, with net profit rising 72% to $22.3 million.

Today the company reiterated current year guidance of revenue of $215-223 million, up 8-12% with a slightly lower gross margin of 75-77%.

The trial universe expands 

Nerve repair house ReNerve (ASX:RNV) has expanded its clinical trial that appraises its nerve protection cuff, Nervalign.

Expanding on “statistically significant” interim data presented in March 2025, the study appraises Nervalign across multiple US sites.

“Bringing a much larger number of patients into this study will provide clinical evidence that demonstrates the efficacy of Nervalign across the wider range of commonly injured nerves,” said Renerve CEO Dr Julian Chick.

Carried out across three US centres, the trial is divided into a control cohort and a group of patients administered Nervealign along with the standard of care.

Both cohorts will enroll around 120 patients, with the primary endpoints based on pre- and post-operative pain scores and “functional recovery metrics.”

To date the trial has enrolled about one-third of the targeted patients.

Meanwhile, Artrya (ASX:AYA) says Boston’s esteemed Mass General Brigham hospital will participate in its Sapphire study.

This one appraises Artrya’s AI power heart disease detection platform, Salix.

Mass General Brigham is a global leader in cardiovascular care and one of the largest hospital-based research enterprises in the US.

The company expects Sapphire to launch next year across eight centres. These include the high-volume Piedmont Healthcare and the Huntsville Hospital Heart Center.

A lower dose, Imagion that

Imagion Biosystems (ASX:IBX) reports “positive and encouraging results” in a dosing protocol for its phase II imaging trial for Her-2 positive breast cancers.

In essence, the company should be able to use a lower dose of its proprietary  Magsense imaging agent than in its previous phase I trial.

“Lower doses that still achieve the necessary detection sensitivity are expected to strengthen the product’s safety profile, whilst also delivering a better care experience for patients,” the company says.

Imagion did the dosage work in collaboration with Detroit’s Wayne State University.

The results will support Imagion’s planned Investigational New Drug application to the US Food and Drug Administration, to enable the trial to go ahead.

Percheron girds for study launch

It’s also show-and-tell time at Percheron Therapeutics (ASX:PER), which in June acquired an oncology program after last November’s failure of its flagship Duchenne muscular disease (DMD) trial.

Acquired from Singapore Hummingbird Biosciences, the program targets the overlooked biomarker Vista.

Seeing you asked, Vista is a “v-domain immunoglobulin suppressor of T-cell activation”.

Vista could be a new mechanism to treat a range of tumours. These include certain breast, lung, esophageal and endometrial cancers.

The company hopes to launch a phase II trial to test the monoclonal antibody in question – HMBD-002 – by the end of 2026.

A phase I trial carried out by Hummingbird showed “a very favourable safety profile and signals of efficacy”.

Percheron last week reported a September cash balance of $5.68 million, down from $10.17 million in the June quarter.

The company expended $1.93 million to wind up the DMD program, but these costs are “substantially complete”.

The Hummingbird deal entailed an upfront payment of $4.6 million, with contingent milestone payments of up to $443 million.