Monsters of Rock: As commodity prices race, analysts are optimistic on September numbers

• With base and precious metals on the rise, analysts are looking for positives in September quarter reports
• Canaccord Genuity has adjusted price targets on a number of copper and tin miners, with Metals X seeing a big upgrade
• RBC has taken a look at the hot ASX gold sector as prices hit US$4000/oz

An all-commodity rally has inspired analysts to lift price targets on a host of stocks playing in spaces from copper to tin and, of course, precious metals ahead of a bumper reporting season.

We’re on the cusp of the September quarter rundown, an opportunity for investors to take stock of how producers across the ASX resources space are performing.

And higher commodity prices for base and precious metals have led to a more optimistic outlook from number crunchers.

“The cutting of rates by the Federal Reserve in September combined with a weakening of the US dollar have provided support for commodities, particularly precious and industrial metals,” Canaccord Genuity’s Tim Hoff said in a note.

“Whilst precious metals have acted as hedges against inflation, base metals have benefited from increased global demand related to infrastructure spending, electrification and data centre expansion, aided by both cheaper borrowing and the weaker dollar.

“All commodities rallied towards the back end of the quarter with aluminium, zinc and tin standouts (average quarterly pricing up 10%, 7% and 6%, respectively QoQ).”

Copper has lifted close to record highs post-quarter on supply disruptions at the Grasberg and Quebrada Blanca mines.

Hoff noted Grasberg accounted for around 4% of global copper supply last year. That’s a big number in the scheme of things as copper demand rises.

That optimism has flowed through to mining stocks. Tin producer Metals X (ASX:MLX) lifted 47% with small copper producer 29Metals (ASX:29M) up 45% (29M +95% before a seismic sitch at Golden Grove that prompted it to pull zinc guidance) and Hillgrove Resources (ASX:HGO) +20% before retreating after using its share price strength to raise $28m.

Among Canaccord’s other covered base metals stocks, Hoff said Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) was flat as the nickel price was the one not to move in the quarter, while Develop Global (ASX:DVP) fell 12% as it absorbs ramp-up costs at the Woodlawn copper-zinc mine.

Price target upgrades

With base metal prices rising, Hoff has lifted price targets on a number of players.

He has moved up Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) from $12.50 to $14.25 on a higher EBITDA multiple, but also risk weighting on the approval of the Black Butte project in Montana amid a more bullish environment for US mine proposals.

On the operational side, however, a softer quarter is expected for the September just gone.

“Flagged softer quarter by the company at the FY25 result, lower copper eq production from both MATSA and Motheo. We expect costs to rise at MATSA as 1H’FY26 CuEq production is skewed towards the DecQ’25. We anticipate cash to increase by 17% QoQ to US$129m,” Hoff said in his note.

NIC’s price target has been lifted from 68c to 80c on a lower discount rate, while Metals X has seen the biggest bump in price target (58c to 95c) and an upgrade from hold to buy on higher tin prices.

Copper junior 29M’s price target has been lifted from 16c to 30c, though it’s still a sell, while Hillgrove’s spec buy has been maintained with its PT cut from 8c to 5c on production downgrades and dilution.

That remains well above the Kanmantoo miner’s current market price of 3.8c.

Canaccord predicts copper will rise to US$5.19/lb in 2026, 3.8% higher than previous estimates, from US$4.44/lb in the September quarter of 2025 and US$4.85/lb in the December quarter.

Its medium term price from 2027-2029 is cut at US$5.50/lb.

More gold upgrades

It’s impossible to talk about reporting season before looking ahead to the gold sector’s next victory lap.

Prices ran to US$3825/oz to end the quarter and have run even harder to (briefly) top US$4000/oz this week. Crazy stuff, but then the world is pretty bonkers RN.

There have already been some drops of early Q1 FY26 numbers, some of which you can check out here.

By and large it’s been pretty good, with miners already outperforming the gold price last quarter.

RBC’s Alex Barkley says the backdrop remains constructive as a rising gold price leads to higher profits.

“In Q1 FY26, AUD gold has increased another 18% but our coverage has outperformed with a ~50% increase,” he said in a note.

“While this has reduced some implied target price upside, we still consider our original FY26 view a valid investment framework, and continue to stress that gold miners delivering and/or proposing high production growth should be evaluated.

“Gold projects generally have lower technical risk than other metals, plus gold’s >100% price increase over two years has unlocked dormant in-ground value.”

RBC is favouring stocks that can show continued growth.

“Q1 pre-reporting so far has overall exceeded market expectations, potentially confirming benign industry conditions. We expect this environment should see investors broadly more forgiving of any Q1 softness,” Barkley said.

“Any … potential weakness could be viewed as a temporary hangover from a strong Q4 and expected to improve over FY26. Hence, we would cautiously favour investments in ongoing growth vs operational/valuation safety through reporting.”

RBC has lifted its price target on Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) from $2.70 to $2.80 but chopped its rating to underperform over concerns about a production slide this year, and with its shares already running well beyond that mark.

The big mover is St Barbara (ASX:SBM), which raised $58m this week to advance work on its Simberi gold expansion in PNG. RBC has upped its price target 27% to 95c and moved SBM from sector perform to outperform.

RBC sees high earnings growth coming from Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX), Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL), Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) and Kiwi developer Santana Minerals (ASX:SMI).

It also has an outperform on Regis Resources (ASX:RRL), where free cash flow yields are projected of 15% in FY26 and 21% in FY27.

By FY28, RBC estimates Regis will have some $2.7bn in cash and bullion, adding $2.2bn to the bank in the next three years even with a rising dividend.

The ASX 300 Metals and Mining index rose 1.51% over the past week.

Which ASX 300 Resources stocks have impressed and depressed?

Making gains 

Predictive Discovery (ASX:PDI) (gold) +24.7%

Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL) (lithium) +21%

Lynas (ASX:LYC) (rare earths) +18.6%

Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) (mineral sands/rare earths) +16.2%

Eating losses 

Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) (gold) -11.3%

Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) (gold) -7.8%

Bluescope Steel (ASX:BSL) (steel) -7.4%

Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) (gold) -4.7%

Predictive Discovery was the top ASX 300 mining gainer after announcing a $2.4bn merger with Robex Resources Inc (ASX:RXR) to create a Guinean gold developer with a potential 400,000ozpa run rate from 2029.

Lynas’ stunning run continued amid a bullish environment for rare earths miners as it struck a deal to supply a US magnet producer at the same time as China issued more restrictions on heavy rare earths materials and magnet technology exports.

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Hillgrove Resources is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.