Data from Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast shows a projected annual lithium supply deficit of up to 225,000 tonnes in North America and 500,000 tonnes in Europe by 2030.

They are insane numbers.

Especially as bullish price sentiment within the lithium market continued to develop in August, driven by Chinese downstream companies “who were willing to pay higher prices for what little feedstock was available”, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says.

But this is just the beginning. Over the longer term, this lack of raw material supply could completely derail Europe’s and North America’s electrification plans.

“In general, there is a lack of understanding of just how much lithium is required to fuel electric vehicle demand going forward,” Benchmark senior analyst Cameron Perks says.

To incentivise the right amount of investment in new mines there is going to have to be a sustained period of higher prices, he says.

“There also has to be some level of education for decision makers on the severity of the shortfall and how much money and time it realistically takes to get a mine into operation and ramped up.”

 

Vanadium’s stellar 2021 run

The vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) price has posted a stellar performance since the beginning of 2021, with an 80% increase to US$9.6/lb, according to Roskill.

~90% of V2O5 is used to strengthen steel; just ~2% goes into the nascent redox flow battery market.

“During the first seven months of the year, global steel production rose 12.4% y-o-y, with China’s steel output increasing 8.0% y-o-y and the rest of the world 18.5% y-o-y,” Roskill says.

“Unsurprisingly, vanadium demand followed.

“Meanwhile, vanadium supply is expected to increase only moderately in 2021, and mostly coming from some Chinese slag producers.”

Despite the Chinese dropping steel production in the coming months, Roskill believes that vanadium prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range until the end of the year but remaining above their long-term forecast.

“While Chinese steel production may drop on a y-o-y basis in the coming months, domestic consumption remains reasonably strong with the main decline coming from steel exports,” it says.

“Inventories [also] appear to be leaner than usual, and stronger demand in the world ex-China combined with continuous supply chain issues could trigger more vanadium purchases from steel mills in coming weeks.”

 

Strong investor sentiment continues

Only 25 of the 130 ASX battery metals stocks on our list posted a loss last week.

Over the past year, 59 stocks have posted a gain of 100% or more.

Three of them – Vulcan, Sayona and Lake – have posted a gain of 1000% or higher, and there are several more knocking at the door.

Here’s how a basket of ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, and vanadium are performing>>>

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop:

CODE COMPANY 1 WEEK RETURN % 1 MONTH RETURN % 6 MONTH RETURN % 1 YEAR RETURN % SHARE PRICE MARKET CAP
PAM Pan Asia Metals 323 323 297 0.635 $ 27,097,615.22
GBR Great Boulder Resources 91 63 269 233 0.1625 $ 56,843,366.40
LPD Lepidico 40 56 22 250 0.028 $ 166,106,650.35
BMM Balkan Mining and Minerals 40 66 0.88 $ 29,900,000.00
DEV Devex Resources 37 21 40 54 0.315 $ 90,811,020.27
INR Ioneer 33 48 47 558 0.645 $ 1,142,518,140.60
VRC Volt Resources 28 48 141 141 0.0385 $ 90,281,908.65
QXR Qx Resources 27 17 -18 -7 0.014 $ 9,329,072.49
AAJ Aruma Resources 25 76 50 -14 0.09 $ 9,006,678.80
AVZ AVZ Minerals 24 34 53 339 0.2675 $ 901,088,350.40
LTR Liontown Resources 24 11 107 681 1.055 $ 1,916,556,271.83
ADV Ardiden 23 100 0 -38 0.016 $ 34,389,667.46
BKT Black Rock Mining 22 26 30 190 0.1825 $ 157,200,901.93
AZS Azure Minerals 22 55 44 147 0.395 $ 126,786,645.61
REE Rarex 20 5 -31 69 0.11 $ 50,064,468.46
GW1 Greenwing Resources 19 27 3 107 0.31 $ 27,706,809.24
GAL Galileo Mining 18 -1 -11 -7 0.33 $ 47,223,397.65
MLX Metals X 17 22 59 273 0.31 $ 285,788,811.11
RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 17 31 -5 91 0.021 $ 9,400,523.32
JRV Jervois Global 16 6 11 85 0.505 $ 757,357,931.00
BEM Blackearth Minerals 16 38 21 282 0.145 $ 30,435,337.38
NTU Northern Min 15 13 0 41 0.045 $ 222,718,796.44
QPM Queensland Pacific 15 30 112 938 0.2075 $ 277,900,691.86
RXL Rox Resources 15 8 -11 -52 0.455 $ 67,771,274.02
RFR Rafaella Resources 15 -9 6 18 0.091 $ 16,976,075.20
EUR European Lithium 14 54 40 87 0.088 $ 94,152,204.36
CXO Core Lithium 14 30 62 886 0.365 $ 506,206,049.99
ARU Arafura Resource 14 27 -25 129 0.165 $ 263,491,046.44
ORE Orocobre Limited 13 11 102 233 9.42 $ 6,235,782,538.26
GME GME Resources 13 15 -11 46 0.061 $ 33,857,473.43
HAS Hastings Tech Met 13 5 15 80 0.225 $ 391,152,434.85
AGY Argosy Minerals 13 29 64 260 0.18 $ 231,300,265.24
AOU Auroch Minerals 12 -10 -16 128 0.185 $ 54,570,907.99
SYA Sayona Mining 11 89 399 1673 0.155 $ 948,462,466.49
FFX Firefinch 10 48 181 203 0.59 $ 552,365,701.20
VUL Vulcan Energy 10 43 127 1942 14.19 $ 1,512,199,959.60
TMT Technology Metals 9 20 28 118 0.415 $ 65,327,454.80
IXR Ionic Rare Earths 9 24 -38 227 0.036 $ 122,126,382.50
PNN PepinNini Minerals 9 -3 -23 181 0.3 $ 13,773,282.42
GED Golden Deeps 9 0 9 -14 0.012 $ 8,534,365.84
PGM Platina Resources 9 -15 67 60 0.0785 $ 32,578,675.65
SYR Syrah Resources 9 -10 13 237 1.33 $ 682,549,718.01
ESS Essential Metals 9 41 81 96 0.19 $ 48,712,094.67
TLG Talga Group 9 2 1 118 1.395 $ 430,586,466.52
MCR Mincor Resources 8 9 38 60 1.44 $ 622,608,613.92
CLA Celsius Resource 8 -7 -45 42 0.027 $ 27,227,930.11
PAN Panoramic Resources 8 17 56 139 0.21 $ 420,437,370.82
HWK Hawkstone Mng 8 45 -9 133 0.042 $ 73,799,227.17
TKL Traka Resources 8 0 -26 -30 0.014 $ 8,709,510.52
ASN Anson Resources 9 20 33 376 0.1 $ 89,865,764.20
TNG TNG Limited 8 18 -4 5 0.085 $ 106,207,248.40
NWC New World Resources 8 -5 20 65 0.071 $ 112,652,252.50
G88 Golden Mile Res 7 -8 11 7 0.059 $ 7,614,989.71
ALY Alchemy Resource 7 15 7 -17 0.015 $ 9,411,408.34
VR8 Vanadium Resources 7 15 36 107 0.06 $ 24,269,758.09
SRL Sunrise 7 -17 -31 0 1.8 $ 165,706,497.36
OZL OZ Minerals 6 5 7 59 23.88 $ 8,071,204,144.32
RNU Renascor Res 6 70 85 881 0.1275 $ 253,626,073.02
AUZ Australian Mines 6 34 13 53 0.0255 $ 103,285,418.74
PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc 6 3 -26 748 0.78 $ 478,805,503.00
CHR Charger Metals 6 149 0.535 $ 17,920,000.56
LYC Lynas Rare Earths 6 -12 2 180 6.775 $ 6,368,657,047.14
ADD Adavale Resource 5 -2 2 157 0.059 $ 16,989,521.12
GL1 Globallith 5 41 0.395 $ 35,145,478.92
BUX Buxton Resources 5 -28 8 -31 0.079 $ 10,748,379.13
AQD Ausquest Limited 5 -9 -5 -35 0.02 $ 16,463,796.62
BRB Breaker Res NL 5 31 5 -13 0.21 $ 71,685,004.38
NMT Neometals 5 11 113 337 0.765 $ 394,831,005.12
NMT Neometals 5 11 113 337 0.765 $ 394,831,005.12
PEK Peak Resources 5 -18 -14 131 0.09 $ 170,793,201.37
BAR Barra Resources 5 15 10 -4 0.023 $ 16,262,594.42
WKT Walkabout Resources 5 7 59 18 0.23 $ 97,843,547.21
GLN Galan Lithium 5 -12 125 597 1.045 $ 295,659,504.68
MIN Mineral Resources. 4 -10 38 83 54.33 $ 10,323,858,215.40
CHN Chalice Mining 4 -10 50 374 6.85 $ 2,399,979,624.00
IGO IGO Limited 4 1 35 113 9.58 $ 7,421,224,567.40
IGO IGO Limited 4 1 35 113 9.58 $ 7,421,224,567.40
LPI Lithium Pwr Int 4 2 12 87 0.28 $ 99,399,406.68
COB Cobalt Blue 4 -3 -33 189 0.28 $ 82,086,632.93
PRL Province Resources 3 15 76 372 0.15 $ 163,800,672.60
MOH Moho Resources 3 -10 -23 -41 0.062 $ 6,299,799.52
SGQ St George Min 3 -1 -31 -38 0.068 $ 40,064,983.72
NIC Nickel Mines Limited 3 -7 -29 36 1.0275 $ 2,552,754,486.77
PSC Prospect Res 3 12 112 97 0.365 $ 134,233,237.25
STK Strickland Metals 3 -7 53 -28 0.038 $ 42,144,687.16
ESR Estrella Res 3 0 -47 150 0.04 $ 46,481,749.60
PLS Pilbara Min 2 8 93 523 2.12 $ 6,634,094,415.82
EGR Ecograf Limited 2 8 30 856 0.86 $ 364,365,101.79
POS Poseidon Nick 2 -2 55 96 0.1175 $ 367,675,143.12
AML Aeon Metals . 2 0 -50 -62 0.057 $ 44,228,114.60
CTM Centaurus Metals 1 0 17 97 0.995 $ 347,166,342.52
LKE Lake Resources 1 2 46 1634 0.555 $ 635,257,384.90
MLS Metals Australia 0 0 -33 0 0.002 $ 8,454,376.09
SBR Sabre Resources 0 0 -20 -56 0.004 $ 6,732,254.60
SLZ Sultan Resources 0 -8 -15 -34 0.165 $ 11,473,174.19
IPT Impact Minerals 0 0 -43 -52 0.013 $ 26,309,333.95
HNR Hannans 0 0 -13 0 0.007 $ 16,519,840.34
JRL Jindalee Resources 0 21 126 732 3.6 $ 192,254,277.60
VMC Venus Metals Cor 0 -11 -11 -31 0.17 $ 24,927,982.70
ATM Aneka Tambang 0 0 0 0 1 $ 1,303,649.00
AJM Altura Mining 0 0 0 0 0.07 $ 209,037,029.25
LML Lincoln Minerals 0 0 0 14 0.008 $ 4,599,869.49
MAN Mandrake Res 0 -24 -48 0 0.06 $ 28,647,034.20
MNS Magnis Energy Tech 0 29 31 89 0.36 $ 339,243,609.29
GXY Galaxy Resources 0 17 102 330 5.28 $ 2,715,139,305.12
BSX Blackstone -1 6 -11 -10 0.455 $ 154,952,968.35
VML Vital Metals Limited -1 39 -13 300 0.068 $ 295,749,298.96
LIT Lithium Australia NL -2 -2 -13 131 0.1225 $ 120,389,594.63
INF Infinity Lithium -2 -2 -51 24 0.093 $ 37,471,053.71
AVL Aust Vanadium -2 -2 7 73 0.0225 $ 72,178,160.58
FGR First Graphene -2 -17 -17 60 0.2 $ 112,692,802.13
CZN Corazon -3 -15 -29 -22 0.039 $ 7,919,111.62
MRC Mineral Commodities -3 0 -62 -43 0.15 $ 80,098,595.10
LEG Legend Mining -4 -12 -42 -54 0.076 $ 206,635,179.08
HXG Hexagon Energy -4 9 -19 28 0.074 $ 33,005,023.20
CWX Carawine Resources -5 -9 -45 -7 0.21 $ 22,866,879.42
ARN Aldoro Resources -5 -3 129 448 0.515 $ 45,715,066.28
ARN Aldoro Resources -5 -3 129 448 0.515 $ 45,715,066.28
BOA Boadicea Resources -5 -14 -13 14 0.19 $ 14,762,980.05
TON Triton Min -6 13 -33 -36 0.034 $ 38,571,914.28
BHP BHP Group Limited -6 -21 -17 12 42.08 $ 124,943,146,535.90
ARL Ardea Resources -6 -10 -12 -20 0.47 $ 66,256,425.12
EMH European Metals Hldg -7 -12 -7 251 1.475 $ 197,739,786.80
SRI Sipa Resources -8 7 9 -30 0.061 $ 10,950,858.04
S2R S2 Resources -8 -27 -23 -38 0.12 $ 42,764,982.60
ARR American Rare Earths -8 75 83 431 0.17 $ 60,341,457.05
AXE Archer Materials -8 6 71 267 1.67 $ 382,546,997.28
NKL Nickelx -11 14 0.21 $ 12,305,000.00
PUR Pursuit Minerals -25 -27 -22 209 0.046 $ 54,693,821.04
CNJ Conico -31 11 152 386 0.068 $ 69,643,895.12

 

Small Cap Standouts

PAN ASIA METALS (ASX:PAM) +323%

The explorer went exponential after announcing the acquisition of the ‘Kata Thong’ geothermal lithium project in southern Thailand last Tuesday.

Like punter favourite  Vulcan Energy (ASX:VUL), Pan Asia wants to produce a ‘carbon neutral’ lithium product by pumping deep geothermal brines to surface, using the excess geothermal energy to power its lithium chemical process and maybe even export additional power to the grid.

“The potential for a geothermal style lithium project is strong,” managing director Paul Lock says.

“The underlying geothermal system is similar to that of Cornish Lithium except that at Kata Thong the granite is exposed at surface with nearby geothermal discharges up to 780C at surface and a hotter geothermal system modelled to depths down to 2km,” he says.

“We see this as complementary to the [flagship] ‘Reung Kiet’ lithium project where we anticipate estimating a maiden mineral resource in November and a Scoping Study soon after.”

The ~$27m market cap stock is up ~175% on its October 2020 IPO price of 20c per share.