Where’s the gold price going in 2021? No one knows, but there’s a swarm of guesses to choose from.

There was the forecast that gold prices would surge in January (which hasn’t happened, yet).

Metals Focus reckons the yellow metal will hit all-time highs of $US2,300/oz later this year.

US-based natural resource investors Goehring & Rozencwajg is more circumspect. It predicts we are due a small ‘price correction’ in precious metals, a small blip in a larger bull market.

A correction is often referred to as a relatively short term fall of more than 10 per cent (but less than 20 per cent), from a most recent peak.

But why? Goehring & Rozencwajg say a strange thing happens when silver surges relative to the gold price: they both fall right after.

This is a pattern that has played out multiple times over the last half-century.

In gold bull markets over the last 50 years, silver has shown a strong tendency to lag the advancing gold price for many years before catching up suddenly in a “spasm of speculative activity”, Goehring & Rozencwajg say.

Like right now.

After bottoming at $12 per ounce in March, silver has staged an impressive catch-up rally over the last six months, up ~33 per cent to gold’s ~3 per cent.

“We are extremely bullish on gold and do not believe we are repeating the 1979 and 2010 experience [when precious metals prices spent a decade in purgatory],” Goehring & Rozencwajg say.

“However, given silver’s huge move in the last six months, gold and precious metals could now go through a potential correction phase within a larger bull market.”

Which is the good news. A student of history knows that real gold bull markets are of substantial duration, legendary gold investor Rick Rule told Stockhead late last year.

They typically last upwards of eight years, and by his reckoning we’re into this one for around 20 months.

Goehring & Rozencwajg say investors should play the long game.

“We recommend investors use any such corrective phase to build up significant positions in both physical gold and silver and related equities.”

$US gold price over the past 12 months.

 

Winners & Losers

Here’s how ASX-listed gold stocks performed January 11 – January 15 [intraday].

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop:

CODE COMPANY 1 WEEK CHANGE % 1 MONTH CHANGE % 6 MONTH CHANGE % 1 YEAR CHANGE % PRICE MARKET CAP
HXG Hexagon Energy 94 100 131 100 0.12 $ 31,626,559.34
HWK Hawkstone Mining 43 50 -6 88 0.015 $ 19,650,456.05
FNT Frontier Resources 27 46 73 90 0.019 $ 9,290,000.00
GNM Great Northern Minerals 15 -12 -21 67 0.015 $ 11,802,954.85
PAK Pacific American Holdings 13 24 189 -5 0.026 $ 7,550,037.60
E2M E2 Metals 12 -11 253 216 0.6 $ 89,795,043.60
PNM Pacific Nickel Mines 12 -3 107 -44 0.056 $ 8,537,151.52
CXU Cauldron Energy 11 29 133 113 0.049 $ 21,055,977.06
CBY Canterbury Resources 10 0 -19 -50 0.11 $ 9,681,649.45
FFX Firefinch 10 57 63 165 0.22 $ 172,019,595.22
MAU Magnetic Resources 9 9 -9 158 1.29 $ 276,699,362.56
DRE Dreadnought Resources 9 14 85 243 0.024 $ 49,760,643.70
GMR Golden Rim Resources 9 20 -14 20 0.012 $ 24,248,274.57
MKG Mako Gold 9 -8 4 74 0.12 $ 30,868,992.24
REZ Resources & Energy Group 8 10 179 194 0.053 $ 24,605,804.97
ARN Aldoro Resources 8 38 108 8 0.2 $ 13,276,160.60
RDS Redstone Resources 7 36 50 67 0.015 $ 7,941,235.95
TSO Tesoro Resources 7 11 253 638 0.3 $ 153,850,064.76
MBK Metal Bank 7 25 57 74 0.015 $ 17,770,000.00
ARL Ardea Resources 7 14 50 -16 0.48 $ 62,558,585.18
LEX Lefroy Exploration 5 8 -2 14 0.21 $ 25,202,030.07
EMU EMU NL 5 13 125 10 0.045 $ 16,038,244.62
AUT Auteco Minerals 5 16 -34 1178 0.115 $ 180,225,577.64
BRV Big River Gold 4 -4 50 182 0.048 $ 69,686,171.88
CEL Challenger Exploration 4 14 9 92 0.25 $ 132,582,522.96
PNR Pantoro 4 9 16 79 0.25 $ 359,141,548.14
MGV Musgrave Minerals 4 4 -25 348 0.385 $ 190,543,406.45
NXM Nexus Minerals 4 0 94 183 0.13 $ 31,739,717.23
BNR Bulletin Resources 4 1 11 282 0.084 $ 14,164,152.85
MHC Manhattan Corp 4 0 12 367 0.028 $ 37,135,803.40
AWV Anova Metals 4 7 0 230 0.029 $ 41,559,731.80
WCN White Cliff Minerals 4 -3 142 480 0.029 $ 14,479,775.77
SI6 SI6 Metals 3 36 386 1033 0.034 $ 46,540,907.00
DTM Dart Mining 3 6 12 146 0.19 $ 18,489,913.06
VAN Vango Mining 3 3 -40 -54 0.076 $ 78,352,569.36
SKY SKY Metals 3 8 -9 95 0.195 $ 48,096,716.46
TIE Tietto Minerals 2 -3 -36 60 0.415 $ 185,857,286.96
GWR GWR Group 2 37 514 438 0.43 $ 126,719,238.24
NAG Nagambie Resources 2 7 -13 28 0.046 $ 22,996,887.92
OKR Okapi Resources 2 17 32 147 0.245 $ 10,792,818.00
AXE Archer Materials 2 7 31 255 0.55 $ 126,076,465.76
AMG Ausmex Mining 2 28 97 -14 0.059 $ 31,211,393.67
GTR GTI Resources 2 27 22 205 0.0305 $ 18,046,503.94
GIB Gibb River Diamonds 1 -54 86 64 0.082 $ 17,555,283.94
NSM North Stawell Mines 1 -5 0 0 0.435 $ 17,400,000.00
BC8 Black Cat Syndicate 1 14 -15 140 0.755 $ 79,994,808.58
DDD 3D Resources 0 13 13 350 0.0045 $ 14,461,488.37
AQI Alicanto Minerals 0 4 97 167 0.12 $ 39,230,095.32
ANX Anax Metals 0 -8 106 332 0.048 $ 12,329,082.74
ADV Ardiden 0 24 17 425 0.021 $ 47,147,361.45
AAJ Aruma Resources 0 0 75 133 0.007 $ 9,536,483.42
AYM Australia United 0 -11 167 100 0.008 $ 14,740,619.88
BCN Beacon Minerals 0 -5 -3 6 0.037 $ 106,080,432.90
CDT Castle Minerals 0 11 -23 11 0.01 $ 6,592,507.36
CTO Citigold 0 8 180 211 0.014 $ 38,089,424.93
CGN Crater Gold 0 -3 111 58 0.019 $ 23,322,421.47
CY5 Cygnus Gold 0 0 -5 227 0.18 $ 19,452,617.64
DAU Dampier Gold 0 -7 73 167 0.052 $ 16,418,028.72
GML Gateway Mining 0 10 83 106 0.033 $ 62,905,954.19
GMN Gold Mountain 0 0 -25 -39 0.043 $ 31,981,784.23
GED Golden Deeps 0 -14 33 -52 0.012 $ 9,295,360.14
HAW Hawthorn Resources 0 21 4 84 0.11 $ 36,686,717.43
KAU Kaiser Reef 0 0 15 0 0.41 $ 10,957,250.41
KGM Kalnorth Gold 0 0 30 160 0.013 $ 11,625,120.78
LNY Laneway Resources 0 0 -13 0 0.007 $ 26,425,461.53
MSR Manas Resources 0 17 17 180 0.007 $ 17,941,778.39
MCT Metalicity 0 0 -14 419 0.018 $ 31,358,125.91
MLS Metals Australia 0 0 0 100 0.002 $ 8,381,807.15
MOH Moho Resources 0 -3 -31 100 0.09 $ 8,431,485.21
NPM Newpeak Metals 0 17 75 17 0.0035 $ 14,004,487.53
NUS Nusantara Resources 0 -5 -7 -16 0.28 $ 64,196,441.96
PUA Peak Minerals 0 -13 27 135 0.028 $ 15,982,210.30
PUR Pursuit Minerals 0 55 508 630 0.034 $ 22,067,208.69
SBR Sabre Resources 0 22 267 450 0.011 $ 18,513,700.14
SPQ Superior Resources 0 -13 100 149 0.014 $ 16,524,882.70
TLM Talisman Mining 0 8 -25 5 0.105 $ 19,595,980.43
TMX Terrain Minerals 0 -15 22 175 0.011 $ 8,093,371.10
THR Thor Mining 0 0 183 113 0.017 $ 7,370,808.66
TTM Titan Minerals 0 -4 0 -32 0.115 $ 131,037,029.91
TRM Truscott Mining 0 0 -5 125 0.018 $ 2,302,947.79
TSC Twenty Seven Co. 0 0 20 -25 0.006 $ 12,717,925.28
VKA Viking Mines 0 42 408 291 0.044 $ 18,885,814.91
VRC Volt Resources 0 0 -40 0 0.012 $ 23,791,109.11
CDV Cardinal Resources 0 -1 81 210 1.07 $ 593,155,151.63
OBM Ora Banda Mining -1 18 18 80 0.33 $ 273,722,136.03
AOP Apollo Consolidated -2 7 -11 23 0.32 $ 86,110,588.80
HRN Horizon Gold -2 9 -1 159 0.51 $ 44,777,360.97
AME Alto Metals -2 11 31 151 0.098 $ 39,033,887.46
DGO DGO Gold -2 -2 -2 218 2.89 $ 213,300,069.20
STK Strickland Metals -2 -22 54 187 0.043 $ 18,530,666.92
CYL Catalyst Metals -2 -16 -21 -26 2.14 $ 195,898,498.38
KRM Kingsrose Mining -2 20 -7 35 0.042 $ 30,660,308.78
FML Focus Minerals -3 18 39 47 0.39 $ 70,358,197.53
S2R S2 Resources -3 37 32 48 0.185 $ 58,254,868.12
KWR Kingwest Resources -3 13 32 9 0.18 $ 27,664,894.44
SMI Santana Minerals -3 -3 25 -38 0.175 $ 19,955,711.30
WMX Wiluna Mining -3 -11 5 24 1.36 $ 162,388,108.82
TBR Tribune Resources -3 1 -14 11 6.03 $ 316,382,504.31
ONX Orminex -3 29 -14 -61 0.031 $ 17,251,269.38
TRY Troy Resources -3 2 -2 -6 0.091 $ 69,695,866.66
AQX Alice Queen -3 11 -3 20 0.03 $ 32,746,907.07
FFR Firefly Resources -3 -6 134 234 0.15 $ 41,970,534.48
RDN Raiden Resources -3 -3 329 329 0.03 $ 25,619,795.43
BDC Bardoc Gold -3 19 -12 2 0.088 $ 150,610,691.71
AAR Anglo Australian -3 7 12 46 0.145 $ 85,406,215.68
ADN Andromeda Metals -3 6 520 579 0.285 $ 624,291,069.83
RGL Riversgold -4 34 -18 511 0.055 $ 20,578,877.33
A1G African Gold -4 20 86 70 0.27 $ 11,326,362.08
RRL Regis Resources -4 -1 -32 -15 3.71 $ 1,904,740,733.88
TAR Taruga Minerals -4 24 42 264 0.051 $ 22,860,075.30
NCM Newcrest Mining -4 -1 -18 -13 26.53 $ 21,785,728,327.12
GSM Golden State Mining -4 4 -40 218 0.1875 $ 10,477,697.00
KSN Kingston Resources -4 -9 19 47 0.25 $ 71,113,814.42
STN Saturn Metals -4 -5 -8 56 0.615 $ 68,332,641.30
AL8 Alderan Resources -4 25 14 400 0.12 $ 35,752,931.04
CWX Carawine Resources -4 -4 33 9 0.24 $ 25,589,126.97
TMZ Thomson Resources -4 14 300 386 0.12 $ 37,798,595.28
AUC Ausgold -4 5 18 229 0.046 $ 61,116,428.43
OAU Ora Gold -4 0 44 15 0.023 $ 18,498,594.88
SVY Stavely Minerals -4 -9 15 -11 0.79 $ 204,854,739.82
CAZ Cazaly Resources -4 -15 22 100 0.044 $ 15,870,503.75
CHZ Chesser Resources -4 10 120 193 0.22 $ 96,656,653.88
NWM Norwest Minerals -4 -9 -45 -48 0.086 $ 9,360,255.39
RED Red 5 Limited -4 9 19 -20 0.27 $ 541,999,798.18
BAT Battery Minerals -5 5 110 200 0.021 $ 44,908,017.90
HRZ Horizon -5 0 -19 9 0.105 $ 59,637,396.00
PRS Prospech Limited -5 -7 0 0 0.205 $ 13,329,220.75
MAT Matsa Resources -5 -17 -33 -23 0.1 $ 27,114,670.90
MEG Megado -5 -2 0 0 0.2 $ 8,004,469.80
FAU First Au -5 6 12 90 0.019 $ 9,147,438.81
SIH Sihayo Gold -5 -14 -30 51 0.019 $ 70,023,766.85
ODY Odyssey Gold -5 -5 -5 -5 0.074 $ 22,600,000.00
ERM Emmerson Resources -5 -1 -26 -36 0.074 $ 36,214,040.55
MEI Meteoric Resources -5 17 106 106 0.074 $ 93,279,199.27
SAR Saracen -5 5 -23 34 4.74 $ 5,338,852,346.30
RND Rand Mining -5 -5 -14 -23 1.8 $ 108,267,255.00
KZR Kalamazoo Resources -5 17 -10 80 0.62 $ 79,219,567.57
NST Northern Star -5 3 -13 9 12.6 $ 9,513,954,301.32
KTA Krakatoa Resources -5 -1 -21 94 0.07 $ 19,526,500.00
WWI West Wits Mining -5 27 218 536 0.07 $ 86,758,902.20
ALY Alchemy Resources -6 0 -17 58 0.017 $ 11,428,138.70
BRB Breaker Resources -6 9 -17 -30 0.2075 $ 65,168,185.80
ENR Encounter Resources -6 -8 10 27 0.165 $ 50,490,192.48
EMR Emerald Resources -6 21 41 95 0.82 $ 435,510,639.92
NVA Nova Minerals -6 -3 181 240 0.16 $ 267,191,463.52
SVL Silver Mines -6 14 118 142 0.24 $ 238,805,394.06
CAI Calidus Resources -6 -10 -17 83 0.475 $ 156,319,084.88
GRL Godolphin Resources -6 -8 21 12 0.235 $ 18,919,395.23
PDI Predictive Discovery -6 5 -28 565 0.059 $ 57,970,247.27
SFM Santa Fe Minerals -6 -6 26 26 0.088 $ 6,408,053.43
MML Medusa Mining -7 -3 7 -12 0.75 $ 158,962,640.27
BYH Bryah Resources -7 4 31 45 0.071 $ 11,054,916.58
BBX BBX Minerals -7 -7 60 107 0.28 $ 120,249,040.52
GBZ GBM Rsources -7 4 73 371 0.14 $ 57,457,438.16
ARV Artemis Resources -7 0 69 400 0.135 $ 153,463,182.80
AGG AngloGold Ashanti -7 1 -32 -1 5.87 $ 528,109,968.80
MTC Metalstech -7 -7 34 400 0.195 $ 28,580,689.41
NAE New Age Exploration -7 8 63 333 0.013 $ 15,431,395.33
RML Resolution Minerals -7 3 -51 -22 0.038 $ 10,996,925.86
AZS Azure Minerals -7 -34 300 257 0.5 $ 155,583,289.11
DCN Dacian Gold -8 41 52 -44 0.485 $ 261,559,020.38
DEG De Grey Mining -8 -4 39 1895 1 $ 1,284,807,136.31
HMX Hammer Metals -8 -3 -14 64 0.036 $ 26,967,124.51
LCL Los Cerros -8 20 150 114 0.12 $ 56,253,542.64
MVL Marvel Gold -8 -8 98 -55 0.048 $ 24,923,558.84
CHN Chalice Mining -8 6 261 1520 4.13 $ 1,469,535,039.45
MEU Marmota -8 4 -22 68 0.047 $ 48,426,684.50
CMM Capricorn Metals -8 1 -9 35 1.66 $ 570,998,179.62
RVR Red River Resources -8 12 213 90 0.285 $ 147,565,694.60
KAI Kairos Minerals -8 -8 10 305 0.034 $ 56,972,620.78
MKR Manuka Resources -8 -10 49 0 0.38 $ 35,135,705.16
SBM St Barbara -9 -10 -37 -18 2.23 $ 1,580,002,175.36
YRL Yandal Resources -9 -1 65 78 0.42 $ 39,942,932.63
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated -9 15 116 111 0.94 $ 212,652,383.60
EVN Evolution Mining -9 -4 -23 27 4.61 $ 7,962,388,616.10
OKU Oklo Resources -9 -11 -35 21 0.205 $ 103,326,111.46
SNG Siren Gold -9 -18 0 0 0.66 $ 40,890,859.23
SSR SSR Mining -9 -4 0 0 23.35 $ 416,139,815.40
TAM Tanami Gold -9 17 38 120 0.088 $ 103,408,540.05
BGL Bellevue Gold -9 -24 -3 106 1.02 $ 880,989,384.56
MDI Middle Island Resources -9 26 -33 270 0.34 $ 42,431,798.15
WGX Westgold Resources -9 -13 12 7 2.41 $ 1,029,968,306.10
AMI Aurelia Metals -9 6 -16 2 0.43 $ 530,760,405.75
TNR Torian Resources -10 -3 56 265 0.028 $ 21,598,911.80
CLA Celsius Resources -10 20 139 244 0.055 $ 43,692,212.54
GBR Great Boulder Resources -10 -6 14 23 0.045 $ 8,650,749.42
BAR Barra Resources -10 4 37 24 0.026 $ 17,617,810.63
MZZ Matador Mining -10 19 -15 50 0.345 $ 57,925,378.06
M2R Miramar -10 -12 0 0 0.3 $ 12,879,393.60
AGS Alliance Resources -11 3 1 74 0.17 $ 30,311,013.60
BNZ Benz Mining -11 0 0 0 1.43 $ 21,800,108.40
RMS Ramelius Resources -11 -6 -19 27 1.57 $ 1,274,202,193.95
PRU Perseus Mining -11 3 -14 14 1.19 $ 1,471,748,244.00
AAU Antilles Gold -11 34 71 141 0.082 $ 15,416,190.27
AVW Avira Resources -11 0 60 300 0.008 $ 9,625,280.00
PKO Peako -11 0 157 35 0.024 $ 4,609,300.25
GOR Gold Road Resources -11 1 -30 -6 1.24 $ 1,104,305,558.74
SLR Silver Lake Resources -11 -7 -25 26 1.7 $ 1,511,901,665.23
ZNC Zenith Minerals -12 -12 15 85 0.115 $ 33,851,403.45
GSN Great Southern Mining -12 25 -44 33 0.084 $ 38,672,485.70
GUL Gullewa Limited -12 -20 4 203 0.088 $ 16,048,832.80
SRN Surefire Resources -12 -43 538 920 0.0255 $ 24,225,269.85
LCY Legacy Iron Ore -12 125 800 1700 0.036 $ 224,900,586.61
DCX Discovex Resources -13 17 -13 17 0.007 $ 8,373,148.53
WAF West African Resources -13 -1 -5 136 0.955 $ 843,775,340.16
RSG Resolute Mining -13 0 -37 -38 0.73 $ 844,477,920.09
ALK Alkane Resources -13 -13 -28 39 0.82 $ 485,241,872.00
NES Nelson Resources -14 2 87 103 0.086 $ 10,102,588.50
NML Navarre Minerals -15 -4 35 62 0.18 $ 103,577,008.69
SAU Southern Gold -15 5 -15 -44 0.11 $ 23,466,163.16
SLZ Sultan Resources -16 -22 15 211 0.19 $ 13,211,533.91
G88 Golden Mile -17 -4 -21 -7 0.05 $ 6,273,934.73
PRX Prodigy Gold -17 2 -33 -33 0.045 $ 26,708,869.88
VMC Venus Metals -17 -2 -23 11 0.2 $ 26,438,769.53
MRZ Mont Royal Resources -17 -14 14 -6 0.24 $ 7,970,608.80
DTR Dateline Resources -20 0 0 0 0.002 $ 16,420,156.15
MTH Mithril Resources -20 18 -20 67 0.02 $ 43,828,578.07
XTC Xantippe Resources -20 0 0 -33 0.002 $ 10,186,411.01
RXL Rox Resources -22 -22 -44 56 0.039 $ 88,142,623.91
ANL Amani Gold -25 50 50 -25 0.0015 $ 9,386,996.75
CST Castile Resources -26 -15 31 0 0.23 $ 43,936,226.62
RMX Red Mountain Mining -28 0 117 160 0.013 $ 14,707,192.36

Small cap highlights

Frontier Resources (ASX:FNT) surged after picking up a rock containing up to 101g/t of gold at the Kimono prospect in PNG.

Trench sampling is planned for late January to dial in on some drill targets.

Hawkstone Mining (ASX:HWK) is a gold focussed explorer right now, but its recent spike can be attributed to positive battery metals sentiment.

Its Big Sandy project in the US, currently on the backburner, hosts a big 320,800 tonne lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resource.

Great Northern Minerals (ASX:GNM) hit thick, high grade gold at the Camel Creek project in Queensland.

Highlights include 5m grading 12.2 grams per tonne (g/t) gold from a depth of 59m.

“At Camel Creek we have now tested 1000m of the total 3.3km of total mineralised strike and previous mined areas,” managing director Cameron Mclean says.

“The surface has only been scratched and from what we know about this style of gold deposit is that it should continue to great vertical depth. We now need to drill the entire gold system.”

Pacific American (ASX:PAK) has locked in a previously announced farm in deal over the Porphyry North gold project in WA.

A drill rig has also been secured, with 3,600m of drilling due to kick off at the end of January, the company says.