Iron ore price predictions are all over the shop.

lol.

Clearly, no one has a clue where iron ore prices will end up.

But we can tell you where they’ve been (and maybe where they’re going next).

Prices are still at historically high levels, but the Argus 62% iron ore fines index fell by $US11.25/t — or 6.4% — to $US165/t over the month of March.

And while overall steel demand is likely to accelerate as China enters traditional peak season in April — supported by old and new infrastructure projects, real estate, auto and equipment manufacturing – that may not be good news for iron ore prices.

“Steel output remains curbed [ostensibly due to pollution concerns], which may support steel prices while weakening iron ore prices,” Argus says.
 

Brazilian iron ore exports in recovery mode

The meteoric rise in iron ore prices has been triggered by a combination of factors, which includes reduced output from giant Brazilian iron ore miner Vale.

But Brazilian iron ore exports are now recovering, up ~34% in March compared to the same period last year, according to Metal Bulletin.
 

Why do iron ore berths keep catching fire?

In some good news for iron ore players (well, most of them), another iron ore berth has caught fire, impacting a decent chunk of supply.

In January, it was Vale; this time, it’s the Rio Tinto-owned Iron Ore Company of Canada.

“Given the extent of the damage at the berth, some industry sources expect repairs to take around one to two months,” S&P Platts says.

“Shipment data seen by Platts showed that in 2020, China was IOC’s largest customer, loading 6.7 million mt of iron ore from the terminal, contributing almost 32% of IOC’s exports.

“Market participants saw limited alternatives for IOC’s customers impacted by the disrupted supply given the general lack of spot cargoes from other high grade pellet and concentrate producers due to high term contractual volumes with European and Middle Eastern steel producers.”
 

Here’s how ASX-listed iron ore stocks are performing:

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop

CODE COMPANY 1 WEEK RETURN % 1 MONTH RETURN % 6 MONTH RETURN % 1 YEAR RETURN % SHARE PRICE MARKET CAP
AKO Akora Resources 27 37 0.5 $ 25,654,035.35
RHI Red Hill Iron 13 3 105 116 0.45 $ 26,950,000.00
CIA Champion Iron 11 5 99 284 5.88 $ 2,831,935,164.96
VMS Venture Minerals 11 11 88 567 0.063 $ 79,240,000.00
MGU Magnum Mining & Exploration 5 5 150 163 0.105 $ 42,510,000.00
MIN Mineral Resources 5 3 60 163 39.75 $ 7,294,645,704.30
ADY Admiralty Resources 4 33 41 500 0.024 $ 26,660,098.08
BCK Brockman Mining 3 3 32 83 0.033 $ 306,200,000.00
JMS Jupiter Mines/ Juno Minerals 3 -7 20 44 0.32 $ 607,730,000.00
FMS Flinders Mines 2 -20 13 104 1.27 $ 217,814,664.33
BHP BHP 2 -5 26 51 46.01 $ 213,120,000,000.00
RIO Rio Tinto 2 -5 18 27 112.82 $ 166,460,000,000.00
LCY Legacy Iron Ore 0 0 200 1400 0.015 $ 96,071,077.76
MGT Magnetite Mines 0 62 292 3315 0.047 $ 137,251,808.02
MGX Mount Gibson Iron 0 -7 11 22 0.81 $ 948,733,742.40
RLC Reedy Lagoon 0 5 69 1000 0.023 $ 11,880,000.00
FMG Fortescue Metals Group 0 -7 25 94 20.52 $ 62,349,039,589.50
TI1 Tombador Iron -1 -3 218 218 0.067 $ 69,442,639.49
GEN Genmin -2 0.255 $ 72,625,220.98
SRK Strike Resources -3 11 77 457 0.195 $ 49,426,853.60
GRR Grange Resources -3 -9 113 178 0.5 $ 561,309,268.53
GWR GWR Group -4 -5 44 326 0.255 $ 77,210,000.00
FEX Fenix Resources -4 -8 77 619 0.23 $ 107,151,521.20
ACS Accent Resources -5 -5 800 1700 0.09 $ 41,900,000.00
SHH Shree Minerals -13 0 30 550 0.013 $ 13,680,000.00

 

Recent ASX listee Akora Resources (ASX:AKO) owns a bunch of iron ore exploration projects in Madagascar.

Assays from its maiden drill program at the high grade (+65% fe) ‘Bekisopa’ project were due end of March, so should be released any day now.

Red Hill Iron (ASX:RHI) holds 40% of a large iron ore project in the Pilbara region of WA.

It is free-carried (doesn’t pay anything) until first production by JV partner API Management.

Canadian miner Champion Iron (ASX:CIA) surged after completing the acquisition of the high grade ‘Kamistiatusset’ iron ore project, which is close to the company’s operating Bloom Lake mine.

“This acquisition adds a large scale and highly prospective project to our portfolio,” Champion chief exec David Cataford says.

“In addition, by securing additional port capacity, this further de-risks our Bloom Lake Phase II expansion project, which is currently under construction.”

 

Here’s how ASX-listed coal stocks are performing:

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop

CODE COMPANY 1 WEEK CHANGE % 1 MONTH CHANGE % 6 MONTH CHANGE % 1 YEAR CHANGE % PRICE MARKET CAP
MCM MC Mining 27 8 33 -49 0.14 $ 20,074,542.15
AHQ Allegiance Coal 12 17 30 40 0.091 $ 93,903,529.86
LNY Laneway Res 10 10 -21 83 0.055 $ 18,875,329.67
SMR Stanmore Coal 4 28 8 -19 0.78 $ 201,452,724.05
CKA Cokal 3 -3 24 134 0.068 $ 63,796,179.60
WHC Whitehaven Coal 2 9 66 -11 1.8 $ 1,770,984,857.88
NHC New Hope Corporation 1 9 8 -4 1.39 $ 1,152,814,558.57
NAE New Age Exploration 0 27 8 600 0.014 $ 17,073,600.74
PDZ Prairie Mining -2 -7 -15 58 0.205 $ 46,812,793.25
YAL Yancoal Aust -3 -5 12 6 2.25 $ 2,918,171,155.77
BCB Bowen Coal Limited -3 23 3 49 0.064 $ 60,605,584.77
AKM Aspire Mining -3 -3 22 57 0.094 $ 48,225,513.58
TER Terracom -3 1 -41 -23 0.085 $ 60,288,610.40
CRN Coronado Global Res -6 -10 -2 -30 0.9 $ 1,238,571,615.50
NCZ New Century Resource -6 -6 7 57 0.155 $ 187,538,847.13
MR1 Montem Resources -6 -3 -17 0.15 $ 30,266,142.58
TIG Tigers Realm Coal -6 25 24 -3 0.0075 $ 98,000,267.76
BRL Bathurst Res . -7 -5 0 -43 0.039 $ 70,090,296.67
PAK Pacific American Hld -9 0 0 45 0.02 $ 7,646,037.60
ATU Atrum Coal -21 -77 -80 -68 0.058 $ 31,989,740.92
JAL Jameson Resources -21 -5 -21 -27 0.095 $ 28,816,529.55