Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Thursday, October 30, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7 a.m. AEST Thursday, ASX futures were down 0.5%, pointing to a soggy open.

Here’s what went down overnight….

Markets lose their nerve after Fed’s cut

Wall Street lost momentum as the Fed delivered its second rate cut of the year, then poured cold water on December hopes (more on that below).

The Dow slipped 0.16%, S&P 500 ended flat, and the Nasdaq clung to a 0.55% gain, mostly on the back of Nvidia’s latest record run.

The Bank of Canada also got in on the act, slicing its rate to 2.25% and mumbling about “structural transitions”, which is code for “we’ve got problems.”

Nvidia hit the US$5 trillion mark for the first time in history, a number so ridiculous it now officially owns more market cap than most continents.

Amazon drifted as traders waited for its earnings, while the rest of the Magnificent Seven held their breath ahead of results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta.

Powell cuts, then kills the mood

Jerome Powell once again reminded markets that he’s not Santa Claus.

The Fed Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00% last night, but Powell made sure nobody left the press conference feeling warm inside.

“A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it,” he said – twice, for emphasis.

That was all traders needed to hear.

The two-year US Treasury yield spiked, and the odds of a December cut collapsed from 99% to 88%.

The man who giveth the cut also taketh away the euphoria.

Powell’s excuse is the government shutdown that’s starved the Fed of data.

In other words, they’re flying blind, and it’s hard to stick the landing when you can’t see the runway.

AI: the bubble that isn’t (apparently)

When asked about the AI mania, Powell tried his hand at comedy.

“This is different in the sense that these companies – the ones that are so highly valued – actually have earnings and stuff like that.”

It’s not quite Buffett, but it got a laugh from traders who’ve watched Nvidia print more cash than the US Mint.

Powell insisted the AI boom is grounded in real businesses, not dot-com-style dreams.

And, Powell’s right about one thing.

Consumer spending, not AI, is what’s actually keeping the US economy upright.

The bots may be smarter, but it’s the shoppers doing the heavy lifting.

Crypto whacked

Bitcoin traders, forever allergic to bad news, got a dose of reality.

When Powell says rate cuts aren’t guaranteed, it’s like telling crypto investors Santa’s been laid off.

Bitcoin fell 3% at one point to around US$110,300, Ethereum dropped 5%, and Dogecoin gave up nearly 4%.

It’s the same old story: crypto loves cheap cash and weak dollars.

But Powell just reminded everyone that neither is promised.

And finally…

Back home, there’s plenty of company action even if the macro diary’s empty.

Coles, IGO, Lynas and Mineral Resources all report their quarterlies, while JB Hi-Fi, and Charter Hall Retail REIT line up for AGMs.

Alcoa and Suncorp are hosting investor days, always good for a slide deck or two full of “synergies.”

Globally, eyes are on the Bank of Japan and the ECB, both meeting later today.

And just when traders thought they could relax, Trump’s set to meet Xi in South Korea to discuss a “trade truce.”

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Health Check: CSL (ASX:CSL) is not out of the woods yet, bearish analysts warn.

Argonaut Algorithm: The big takeaways from gold’s quarterly season and a spooky Halloween buy.

Biocurious: Drug developers are hedging their bets on long and winding approval journey.

QPM Energy’s (ASX:QPM) Macquarie funding shows cheque books are opening for east coast energy.

Trading halts

Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) – cap raise
CurveBeam AI (ASX:CVB) – material contracts with Chinese partner
Golden Horse Minerals (ASX:GHM) – cap raise
KGL Resources (ASX:KGL) – cap raise
L1 Group (ASX:L1G) – cap raise
Xstate Resources (ASX:XST) – cap raise

At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Pure Hydrogen and QPM Energy are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.