Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, June 16, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

The ASX looks set to follow Wall Street into the red on Monday morning, with futures pointing down by 0.3%.

After a weekend of flying missiles, surging oil, and shaken markets, Aussie investors might be in for a nervy start to the week.

Wall Street hit hard

Wall Street dropped heavily on Friday as rising tensions between Israel and Iran rattled risk sentiment and triggered a swift flight to safety.

On Friday, the S&P 500 slipped 1.13%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.3%, and the Dow Jones fell 1.79%.

The market hit session lows after news broke that Iran had fired dozens of missiles at Israel, retaliation for an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear and military targets the night before.

Amid the chaos, Tesla rose 2% despite new data showing its US registrations fell 16% in April.

With risk-off sentiment gripping the globe, defensive sectors could get a bit more love this week.

Oil spikes as Israel and Iran trade blows

Crude prices jumped 13% last week, with a big chunk of that coming on Friday alone when oil surged 7%.

Israel’s initial strike targeted Iranian energy and military infrastructure, not oil export sites just yet but close enough to make markets nervous.

Iran fired back over the weekend, with missiles aimed at northern Israeli infrastructure.

And there are whispers Tehran could flirt with shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil shipping lane.

Yes, it would choke about 20% of global oil supply, but it would also hurt Iran’s two biggest customers: China and India.

Importantly, it would practically guarantee a US military response, something Iran likely wants to avoid, especially with its economy already weighed down by sky-high inflation, sanctions, and growing public frustration.

Back home, Aussie energy stocks could be swinging for the fences this morning,

Gold in favour again

In times of chaos, gold glows a little brighter.

Spot prices climbed to around US$3,430 an ounce on Friday, not far off April’s record high.

As missiles flew and markets wobbled, gold became the security blanket investors reached for.

Aussie gold miners might see renewed flows today as global investors rotate into safety plays.

What’s ahead this week

The local calendar is light, but Thursday brings the May jobs report and CBA reckons we’ll see 200,000 new jobs added. That could feed into RBA thinking, especially if wage pressure sneaks back in.

Over in China, Monday brings industrial production and investment data. Expect a mixed bag, said the CBA: factories slowing, but investment ticking up thanks to stimulus efforts.

But the main global event lands Wednesday night: the Fed Reserve’s policy meeting.

Markets are betting the FOMC keeps rates steady again, but investors will hang off every word for clues on the timing of eventual cuts.

Any hawkish surprises here could jolt equities and bonds alike.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

The US and China have paused their tit-for-tat tariffs for 90 days, presenting pros and cons for the rare earths sector.

Markets are coasting on a wave of optimism that looks increasingly untethered from reality, writes group CEO and founder of deVere Group Nigel Green.

A fair chunk of the way into June and crypto sentiment is strong as specific catalysts for the market materialise.

TRADING HALTS

Adriatic Metals (ASX:ADT) – potential corporate transaction
Investigator Resources (ASX:IVR) – cap raise

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.