Rapacious CoreLogic Australia’s head of research Eliza Owen has damned the Brisbane’s property market to within an inch of its limits (and they’re almost non-existent) and sent me this press release about just how appalling Brisbane is.

In newly incriminating data, the nation’s cruelest housing economist says de ville that’s home to de Gabba set a wonderful new terrible performance benchmark for the largest and fastest decline on record.

And it comes (checks notes) barely seven months after values hit their peak.

Her words, not mine. (OK. My italics.)

I would’ve pointed out that following a post-pandemic population surge and subsequent boost in values of almost 45%, ‘Greater Brisbane’ (as if there were any other Bris Vegas) homes smashed their newest record high on 19 June last year.

So well done Brissy.

However, we all know where this story is going.  A few seconds later, the Reserve Bank (RBA) kicked off its rate-tightening cycle-a-thon.

And now Eliza says CoreLogic has Brisbane home values literally melting away, with some 10.9% of value down the drain between the end of June and 28 January, the largest percentage fall on record.

The housing-hardened Owen says this one is the big one. The nation’s largest ever percentage fall on record.

No Fortitude: Worst peak to trough valleys, Brisbane

According to Eliza, the startling new benchmark of shame at least follows the country’s worst-ever-slash-record decline of 8.6%, which happened about 22 days ago.

“Brisbane now stands out as one of two capital city markets with record declines, the other being Hobart. Sydney continues to have the largest peak-to-trough falls of the capital city markets (currently at -13.8%), while peak-to-tough falls remain mild in some cities such as Perth, where values are down just -1.0% from a recent peak in August 2022,” she said, possibly laughing.

But never fear, Brisbane. The record fall in your home values hasn’t hardly bothered the scorers none.

Eliza, composing herself, says most of the record gains made during the upswing are still good.

“The fall in the Brisbane daily HVI follows an upswing of 43.5% between August 2020 and 19 June 2022, which was the fastest trajectory of rising values on record.

“This leaves home values across Brisbane 27.9% higher than at the previous trough in August 2020.”

How does this compare historically, Eliza?

Pretty badly.

The -10.9% decline in home values has taken just over 7 months, making this both the largest and quickest decline in CoreLogic’s studies of Brisbane thus far.

On average, peak-to-trough declines in the Brisbane dwelling market have lasted 14 months, and the extent of declines have ranged from -2.9% to -10.8%.

Ms Owen said the no. 2 downturn for Brisbane home values took place between April 2010 and January 2012, and took 21 months or (counts fingers) 3 times as long to reach a similar state of horrible with the current downturn.

“The second largest period coincided with a national housing market downturn that was fairly broad based, and partly coincided with the RBA lifting the cash rate 175 basis points between October 2009 and November 2010,” she said.

“Cash rate rises occurred as Australia’s economy proved relatively resilient through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and the RBA moved to gradually repeal monetary stimulus it had put in place through 2008-09. Through this period, Brisbane saw the largest declines of the capital city markets.”


Lookout! Here’s Eliza’s Brisbane market outlook

Ensconced in her Fortress of Solitude, the Nullifidian Mistress of Numerals said Brisbane’s housing market is just adjusting to a the increase in borrowing costs over 2H 22.

“Which have likely hit buyers hard off the back of extraordinary price rises.”

The median dwelling value in Brisbane has increased from $506,553 at the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020, to $707,658 at the end of 2022.

“Despite the large decline from peak, Brisbane maintains the third highest gain in value of the capital cities since the start of the pandemic,” she said.

“Only Adelaide and Darwin, which are 42.8% and 29.6% higher respectively than at the onset of the pandemic, have performed stronger. For this reason, there is marginal risk of negative equity for Brisbane homeowners, with the exception of very recent buyers, who purchased around the peak in June 2022 with less than a 20% deposit.”

However, she said some factors may be placing a floor under the market as the pace of price falls across Brisbane has been slowing in recent months.


Factor one: Relative affordability

“Although housing values remain higher than pre-COVID levels, Brisbane retains a lower price point than Sydney, with a $435,170 difference in median house values and $280,749 difference in median unit values,” she said.

“The gap between Brisbane and Melbourne housing values is also significant, with a $119,697 gap between median house values and $97,692 difference in median unit values. This could encourage ongoing housing demand from those willing to migrate to the state, or own an interstate investment.”


Factor Two: We all want to be Queenslanders

Brisbane also continues to experience above average levels of interstate migration. Based on the most recent demographic data to the June 2022 quarter, migration into Queensland was tracking 63% above the decade average, with net interstate migration into Queensland by far the largest across the states and territories.

Rent values increased a further 13.4% in 2022, suggesting an underlying shortage of available housing across the city, Ms Owen said.

“While Brisbane property values are likely to fall further in 2023, it is possible the rate of decline will continue to slow over the coming months.”

She did not say if this would impact the outcome of this year’s State of Origin.