Well, that was a curly one.

It started out well with this kangaroo on a surfboard celebrating Australia’s GDP growing by 3.1. per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020, smashing market expectations of 2.5 per cent.

Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said we were “world leading”!

The same day, UBS confirmed the Februrary reporting season should lead to “bullish” expectations for ASX stocks.

The ratio of companies with earnings beats compared to an earnings miss was 3.3 to 1; easily the highest number going back to at least 2014:

Source: UBS

Wow! AND HERE WE GO!


 

Yep. That was followed by several days of not-quite calamitous falls on US markets, most notably the Nasdaq. The rotation away from technology to cyclical stocks gathered pace, exacerbated by Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell call to be patient in increasing interest rates from near zero levels.

Nope. Not a good week for stocks with… ambitious… valuations.

Code Company Price %Day %Wk %Yr MktCap
FFG Fatfish Group 0.11 -4 -24 1471 $107.9M
APT Afterpay Limited 114.16 -4 -15 244 $33.7B
SZL Sezzle Inc. 8.49 -6 -15 464 $919.9M
IOU Ioupay Limited 0.49 -2 -15 4800 $275.7M
OPY Openpay Group 2.5 -7 -13 150 $222.9M
Z1P Zip Co Ltd. 9.48 -6 -13 267 $5.6B
SPT Splitit 1.06 -7 -11 115 $520.6M
PYR Payright Limited 0.865 0 -9 -29 $51.3M
HUM Humm Group Limited 0.97 -2 -8 -36 $490.3M
LBY Laybuy Group Holding 1.28 -2 -8 -9 $227.6M
ZBT Zebit Inc. 1.12 -2 11 -29 $107.7M

Let’s see where that leaves us.

 

Trading with Focus – When to call time on a stock

Timing is everything. And that applies to when it’s time to post posts about “When to call time on a stock” as much as it does to calling time on a stock.

Stock like, say… Afterpay?

Do you really feel something can be great forever?

Do we have to mention Nic Cage?

It’s OK to say no to sticking with your golden goose if it’s losing its shine.

Kenny Rogers said it best, but Marketech’s in-house team say it pretty well here too, in this post, with charts and everything.

After all, even Afterpay’s directors bailed on a whole lot of their own stock when it was in the mid-$60s…

Anyway, if charts are your thing, Steve Collette has one here on the Nasdaq action that might put it into perspective. The green line (200-day moving avg) shows it has a habit of bouncing back quickly, and strongly:

But just in case, here’s the case for that trend coming to an end.

 

What the ETF? Global shares and Australian bank ETFs have been hot in 2021; and there are more to come

With GameStop now on the move up again, the case gets a little bit stronger for exactly how much social sentiment can be market-moving.

So much so that VanEck is launching an ETF that will track the 75 most-favourably mentioned companies on the internet – the VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF (NYSE:BUZZ).

Dave Portnoy, the founder of pop culture blog Barstool Sports, is backing it – ADAPT OR DIE:

But there weren’t a lot of takers on its debut, and with top 10 holdings like Twitter, Ford, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla, it’s probably not as radical as Portnoy likes to think.

Back here in Australia, the eight top performing ASX ETFs in 2021 are either focused on banks or offer exposure to global assets:

Code Name 30D Vol YTD Rtn
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF 9.83k +16.98%
ASIA AU BetaShares Asia Technology Tigers 542.09k +13.69%
MVB AU VanEck Vectors Australian Bank 23.59k +12.70%
FUEL AU Betashares Global Energy Companies 434.53k +11.70%
VVLU AU Vanguard Global Value Equity 14.48k +11.59%
FOOD AU BetaShares Global Agriculture 20.45k +11.25%
BNKS AU BetaShares Global Banks ETF - 53.14k +11.21%
IJH AU iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF/A 1.38k +10.09%
QFN AU BetaShares S&P/ASX Financial S 41.31k +9.54%
IAA AU iShares Asia 50 ETF/AU 20.17k +8.99%
OZF AU SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Financials Ex 42.92k +8.92%
GGUS AU BetaShares Geared US Equity Fu 72.31k +8.88%
FANG AU ETFS FANG+ ETF 131.35k +8.66%
VISM AU Vanguard MSCI International Sm 5.44k +8.26%
ROBO AU ETFS ROBO Global Robotics and 10.35k +7.99%
MOAT AU VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wid 6.10k +7.06%
VGMF AU Vanguard Global Multi-Factor A 1.06k +7.01%
PAXX AU Platinum Asia Fund ETF 111.79k +6.90%
QUS AU BetaShares S&P 500 Equal Weigh 28.39k +6.81%
PIXX AU Platinum International Fund ET 171.30k +6.69%
ZYUS AU ETFS S&P 500 High Yield Low Vo 33.89k +6.69%
EMMG AU Betashares Legg Mason Emerging 32.52k +6.69%
VHY AU Vanguard Australian Shares Hig 61.94k +6.46%
IZZ AU iShares China Large-Cap ETF/Au 6.81k +6.29%
VAE AU Vanguard FTSE Asia ex-Japan Sh 18.76k +6.18%
QRE AU BETASHARES AUSTRALIAN RESOURCE 131.26k +5.91%
QOZ AU BetaShares FTSE RAFI Australia 101.99k +5.78%
EMKT AU Vaneck Vectors Msci Multifacto 12.99k +5.34%
ACDC AU ETFS Battery Tech and Lithium 30.79k +5.33%
ILC AU iShares S&P/ASX 20 ETF 36.71k +5.31%
YMAX AU BetaShares Australian Top 20 E 80.57k +5.18%
WEMG AU SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Fund 4.79k +5.14%
VGE AU Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets 19.08k +4.96%
OZR AU SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Resources Fun 29.39k +4.79%
VLC AU Vanguard MSCI Australian Large 9.39k +4.75%
MSTR AU Morningstar International Shar 18.72k +4.73%
IHWL AU iShares Core MSCI World All Ca 16.74k +4.67%
ESPO AU VanEck Vectors Video Gaming an 87.81k +4.61%
FEMX AU Fidelity Global Emerging Marke 140.41k +4.56%
LPGD AU Loftus Peak Global Disruption 153.23k +4.27%
SFY AU SPDR S&P/ASX 50 Fund 33.36k +4.26%
IHVV AU iShares S&P 500 AUD Hedged ETF 24.98k +4.18%
UMAX AU BetaShares S&P 500 Yield Maxim 11.37k +4.11%
CETF AU Vaneck Vectors FTSE China A50 2.49k +4.10%
RDV AU Russell Invest High Div Aust S 12.45k +4.03%
IEM AU iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 68.64k +3.96%
REIT AU Vaneck Vectors FTSE Internatio 25.84k +3.87%
WXHG AU SPDR S&P World ex Australia He 5.43k +3.83%
TECH AU ETFS Morningstar Global Techno 11.51k +3.77%
HETH AU Betashares Global Sustainabili 34.48k +3.75%
VGAD AU Vanguard MSCI Index Internatio 85.07k +3.75%
IWLD AU iShares Core MSCI World All Ca 9.14k +3.68%
WDIV AU SPDR S&P Global Dividend Fund 34.19k +3.59%
IHOO AU iShares Global 100 AUD Hedged 1.75k +3.56%
HEUR AU BetaShares Europe ETF - Curren 13.53k +3.53%
NDIA AU ETFS-NAM India Nifty 50 ETF 2.09k +3.53%
WDMF AU iShares Edge MSCI World Multif 5.57k +3.50%
A200 AU BetaShares Australia 200 ETF 69.49k +3.43%
IVV AU iShares Core S&P 500 ETF/Austr 19.28k +3.43%
SWTZ AU Switzer Dividend Growth Fund 52.65k +3.38%
VAS AU Vanguard Australian Shares Ind 278.86k +3.30%
IOZ AU iShares CORE S&P/ASX 200 ETF 0 +3.27%
CURE AU ETFS S&P Biotech ETF 6.00k +3.13%
INIF AU Intelligent Investor Aus Equit 24.07k +3.13%
HNDQ AU Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF - Cu 21.33k +3.01%
EIGA AU eInvest Income Generator Fund 18.28k +2.97%
DJRE AU SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Est 47.37k +2.94%
HJPN AU BetaShares Japan ETF - Currenc 25.35k +2.79%
STW AU SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund 247.04k +2.77%
E200 AU SPDR S&P/ASX 200 ESG Fund 2.70k +2.75%
WXOZ AU SPDR S&P World ex Australia Fu 3.09k +2.67%
VGS AU Vanguard MSCI Index Internatio 85.65k +2.49%
IKO AU iShares MSCI South Korea ETF/A 1.65k +2.48%
AGX1 AU Antipodes Global Shares EQMF E 2.78k +2.43%
IOO AU iShares Global 100 ETF/AU 38.32k +2.42%
ETHI AU BetaShares Global Sustainabili 443.89k +2.40%
F100 AU Betashares FTSE 100 ETF 90.17k +2.25%
EINC AU BetaShares Legg Mason Equity I 5.68k +2.19%
NDQ AU BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF 393.73k +2.16%
VESG AU Vanguard Ethically Conscious I 17.79k +2.06%
AUST AU BetaShares Managed Risk Austra 37.12k +2.00%
AASF AU Airlie Australian Share Fund - 22.13k +1.77%
INCM AU BetaShares Global Income Leade 3.73k +1.66%
VETH AU Vanguard Ethically Conscious A 5.80k +1.56%
SSO AU SPDR S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries 3.94k +1.50%
MOGL AU Montgomery Global Equities Fun 51.15k +1.49%
VMIN AU Vanguard Global Minimum Volati 1.97k +1.46%
GOAT AU VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wor 3.73k +1.44%
WRLD AU BetaShares Managed Risk Global 70.82k +1.36%
QMIX AU SPDR MSCI World Quality Mix Fu 10.18k +1.31%
CNEW AU Vaneck Vectors China New Econo 95.80k +1.28%
QHAL AU Vaneck Vectors MSCI World ex A 23.93k +1.26%
RBTZ AU BetaShares Global Robotics And 97.27k +1.25%
HQLT AU Betashares Global Quality Lead 6.37k +1.02%
MHG AU Magellan Global Equities Fund 298.24k +0.98%
SELF AU SelfWealth SMSF Leaders ETF 446.87 +0.98%
ISO AU iShares S&P/ASX Small Ordinari 60.00k +0.89%
VDHG AU Vanguard Diversified High Grow 63.32k +0.84%
MVW AU VanEck Vectors Aus Equal Weigh 93.82k +0.81%
RARI AU Russell Invest Aust Responsibl 12.58k +0.73%
WCMQ AU WCM Quality Global Growth Fund 87.40k +0.67%
IJP AU iShares MSCI Japan ETF/AU 12.57k +0.63%
VSO AU Vanguard MSCI Australian Small 19.22k +0.56%
ESGI AU VanEck Vectors MSCI Internatio 11.55k +0.51%
VDBA AU Vanguard Diversified Balanced 22.90k +0.44%
VEQ AU Vanguard FTSE Europe Shares ET 59.35k +0.43%
IIGF AU Intelligent Investor Aus Equit 38.99k +0.36%
VDGR AU Vanguard Diversified Growth In 18.97k +0.35%
IVE AU iShares MSCI EAFE ETF/AU 6.37k +0.31%
ESTX AU ETFS EURO STOXX 50 ETF 2.01k +0.29%
AUMF AU iShares Edge MSCI Australia Mu 2.26k +0.24%
SYI AU SPDR MSCI Australia Select Hig 26.35k +0.21%
IEU AU iShares Europe ETF/AU 53.97k +0.11%
QUAL AU Vaneck Vectors MSCI World ex A 109.51k +0.06%
HVST AU BetaShares Australian Dividend 34.67k -0.02%
DRUG AU BetaShares Global Healthcare E 48.74k -0.05%
MCSE AU Magellan Financial Group Core 5.40k -0.29%
MGOC AU Magellan Global Fund/Open Clas 919.61k -0.41%
VDCO AU Vanguard Diversified Conservat 9.51k -0.46%
EX20 AU BetaShares Australian Ex-20 Po 33.73k -0.54%
MCSG AU Magellan Financial Group Core 6.03k -0.58%
INES AU Intelligent Investor Ethical S 62.51k -0.62%
QLTY AU BetaShares Global Quality Lead 26.06k -0.80%
IIND AU Betashares India Quality ETF 27.31k -0.88%
SMLL AU BetaShares Australian Small Co 26.82k -0.91%
MVR AU VanEck Vectors Australian Reso 18.57k -0.92%
IHD AU iShares S&P/ASX Dividend Oppor 90.47k -0.95%
MVOL AU iShares Edge MSCI Australia Mi 66.14k -0.97%
GRNV AU VanEck Vectors MSCI Australian 24.48k -1.44%
VBLD AU Vanguard Global Infrastructure 12.32k -1.49%
MSUF AU Magellan Sustainable Fund - Ma 1.87k -1.60%
IFRA AU VanEck Vectors FTSE Global Inf 70.20k -1.71%
IXJ AU iShares Global Healthcare ETF/ 18.40k -1.79%
MVS AU VanEck Vectors Small Companies 7.30k -1.99%
IMPQ AU eInvest Future Impact Small Ca 26.43k -2.03%
FAIR AU BetaShares Australian Sustaina 184.68k -2.18%
MVE AU Vaneck Vectors S&P/ASX Midcap 10.83k -2.30%
WVOL AU iShares Edge MSCI World Minimu 91.72k -2.35%
MCSI AU Magellan Financial Group Core 5.94k -2.37%
ZYAU AU ETFS S&P/ASX 300 High Yield Pl 33.85k -2.43%
RINC AU BetaShares Legg Mason Real Inc 24.84k -2.49%
MICH AU Magellan Infrastructure Fund - 458.77k -2.95%
HLTH AU VanEck Vectors Global Healthca 24.01k -3.11%
HACK AU BetaShares Global Cybersecurit 337.57k -3.40%
BEAR AU BetaShares Australian Equities 59.05k -3.50%
VAP AU Vanguard Australian Property S 48.47k -4.46%
MVA AU VanEck Vectors Australian Prop 92.55k -4.53%
SLF AU SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Proper 83.72k -4.56%
ATEC AU BetaShares S&P/ASX Australian 59.38k -4.82%
IXI AU iShares Global Consumer Staple 4.05k -7.75%
BBOZ AU BetaShares Australian Equities 2.46M -8.13%
BBUS AU BetaShares US Equities Strong 4.70M -10.16%
MNRS AU Betashares Global Gold Miners 59.23k -13.47%
GDX AU VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF 28.17k -17.39%

There’s more on that here.

But if you’re determined to let cheesball-munching basement dwellers tell you how to spend your retirement fund, at least consult some kind of research.

Research like that conducted by redditor drfreshbatch who’s tracking the peformance of Australia’s top two stockpicking subreddits, r/asx_bets and r/ausfinance.

They have very different philosophies. One takes a long-term conservative stance, the other “a meme-filled, hype centre where users shitpost about their massive wins and losses that happened overnight”.

Can you guess who’s winning in 2021?

 

How I earned more than 200,000 Qantas Points despite COVID

We need to preface this by letting you know Nick Sundich has a raw, untamed passion for being in or near a plane. We know, because when he (unnervingly often) blags a Business Class seat, we get the selfies and it’s clear he is experiencing The Rapture.

So it’s been a tough 12 months for Nick, despite him still squeezing a lazy 12 domestic flights in. And the best flight of all, the “Flight to Nowhere” in October.

Nick’s second passion is collecting Qantas points, also tough in times of restricted travel. Or is it?

He managed to pull 27,800 points from his domestic flights. But get this – Nick’s total Qantas points haul for the past 12 months is a whopping 200,805 points.

Sorcery! How did he do it?

This is an epic tale of extraordinary commitment, going to bed early, and buying three reusable fruit bags “just to get over the line”.

 

Myer’s profit up as ASX retail stocks stage Covid comeback

The 2010s haven’t been kind to Myer. They started well with a $3.60 peak (Oct 2010) and it’s been a steady disintegration since – $3.00 (April 2013), $1.72 (Feb 2015), $1.38 (Dec 2016) and entering small cap status at 70 cents (April 2019).

The retail giant hit a low of just 14 cents as the Covid lockdown hit in March last year, and a valuation of around $120 million. About half a week’s pay for Twiggy Forrest that year.

Covid, huh. Suddenly, Myer has shed 10,000 employees, collected $51 million in Jobkeeper payments, cut operating costs by $80 million, and seen online sales grow by 71% to $287.6 million.

And guess what? The retailer that was worth $120 million a year ago just reported a statutory net profit after tax of $43 million, up by 76 per cent from the previous corresponding period.

Investors… don’t care. But maybe they should, because according to the latest Stockhead IPO watch, almost all retail debutantes in the last 12 months are above their IPO price.

 

Dicker Data made $2 billion last year – here’s why data services stocks might be sexier than you thought

It’s 1985, and you’ve just spent three hours programming your BBC Micro, hit return and just like magic… “Pod can jump”.

Congratulations. Here’s your rock-star reception:

nerd

So you go home and tell your mum that all those 0s and 1s could one day be sold for a couple of billion dollars a year, and she reassures you that she’ll still always love you no matter what.

Only now it 2021, and your Australian-owned and operated tech hardware, software and cloud distributor’s total revenue just surpassed $2 billion for the year.

Congratulations, Dicker Data (ASX:DDR), for sticking with the sector that’s about as sexy as a weekend in a privately hosted staging environment configuring Mark Zuckerberg’s endpoint.

DDR’s share price has rocketed by 70% in the last 12 months. In fact if you’d laid money down on its IPO 10 years ago, you’be enjoying a near 60-fold increase today.

And no, Dicker’s not the only Australian data services play enjoying a stellar run right now.

 

Micro-X gains after portable X-ray company wins $8m stroke grant

Handout Watch – who had February 26 in their trading diaries as the day Health Minister Greg Hunt handed out goodies from the Medical Research Future Fund grab bag?

About $100 million worth, in fact, and three small cap biotechs were very glad they suffered the paperwork.

Micro-X, 4D Medical and EMVision collected $8 million, $8 million, and $28.9 million respectively. All are in the medical imaging business.

EMvision shares rose 20 per cent and Micro-X shares rose 9 per cent on the news. 4D shares popped a little to $1.83, but crumbled to $1.65 after the company immediately announced a Proposed Issue of Securities at $1.55 each.

Still, the feds know how to back a winner.

4D has still more than doubled since its IPO last August, EMvision is up over 500 per cent in two years, and MicroX is up 350 per cent since June.

Here’s what they actually do, and why medical services are crying out for the devices they’re trying to bring to market.

 

February ASX Winners: A commodities boom, BNPL mania, and one tiny 10-bagger casino

Let’s stop fannying about and keep it simple.

These are the best performing ASX small caps for February. No arguments, because numbers don’t lie.

And the biggest fish was a whopper – Canberra Casino owner Aquis Entertainment, which rose something 1000 per cent in a day.

Why? In Reuben Adams’ words – “dunno”.

It was a decent month, February. There are 31 other more ASX small caps that at least doubled their share price.

Think record high battery metals prices are great news?

So your lithium stocks are still making life very cushy for your nest egg?

It was certainly almost a very good week for Piedmont Lithium fans – the ASX “Tesla” stock. It put on a good 20 per cent, boosted late in the week by news the WA Supreme Court was cool with it asking shareholders if they’d like a primary listing to the US for PLL.

But then, because for some reason lithium stocks seem tied to tech routs, the rug got pulled:

Image: Marketech

High-flying lithium-ion battery maker Magnis Energy Technologies (ASX:MNS) reported exciting results in its testing of the fast-charging battery cells. It reckons the capacity retention of its batteries survived 600 cycles with 30 minutes discharge and charge. And it’s closing in on delivering an 85% charge in six minutes.

But wait, wait – advances in batteries have the price of an average pack has fallen from $US290/kWh in 2014 to $US110/kWh, and if we can hit $101/kWh, we can build, sell and make just as much profit from EVs as we can from internal combustion vehicles.

Unless, of course, we all get so frothy about lithium stocks that we just end up financing demand for the stuff, rather than the supply of it.

Nissan’s global head of energy has something serious to say about that. And you better take him seriously, because his name is Zoltan.

 

There’s metal inside your neighbour’s car more valuable than gold #justsayin

This is the catalytic converter inside your car’s exhaust:

Pic: Getty.

Crack it open, and you’ll find this:

Pic: Mt. Baker Mining and Metals (mbmmllc), YouTube

It’s like a sweet, sweet nut, except it’s filled with PGEs like platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Here is the 20-year price chart for rhodium:

Here is the bull case for palladium prices hitting prices 10x what they were a decade ago.

And here’s how to legitimately get your hands on PGEs like platinum, palladium and rhodium without rummaging around under your neighbour’s LandCruiser at 2am. And experimenting with acid leaching or molten fire.

That’s it for this week. Good bye, and good luck.