Mooners and Shakers: ‘Uptober’? More like Shocktober … but Bitcoin yawns, consolidates

• Tariffs, shutdowns, bank scares – Bitcoin cops it all on the chin
• Gold dominates, ETFs bleed, but crypto’s still standing
• Rate cuts, liquidity, and a few degens left alive … maybe Moonvember’s still in play

You’d think after a US government shutdown, another Trump tariff bomb, and a banking wobble, the crypto market would be curled up in the foetal position, sucking its thumb and crying for “Crypto Mom” (that’d be the SEC’s Hester Peirce) to do something.

Well, in truth, the majority of it has been a bit like that these past five days or so.

As for Bitcoin? Just a minor flesh wound or two for the resilient honey badger of the financial world.

After dumping to about US$106,000 mid-month – down about 16% from its fresh all-time high above $125k only 10 days earlier – BTC’s been chopping sideways around the $106k to $109k range.

That hasn’t been pretty, but despite what gold gloaters like Peter Schiff might think, it’s also not time for HODLers to panic. So far, dips like this are just par for the course in a bullish crypto cycle.

Meanwhile, Ethereum slipped back under US$4000, Solana’s near US$185, and the Fear & Greed Index is back in “Fear” territory, slipping to a factor of 22 the other day, its lowest since April.

Upshot: Uptober hasn’t necessarily been cancelled (although it’ll want to get a wriggle on from here) but it’s had something of a mid-month rebrand. Welcome to Shocktober.

How we got here: from Septem-yeah to Shocktober

September had looked like the long-awaited turning point.

The Fed’s first rate cut since 2023 flipped risk appetite back on and the liquidity taps hissed open.

According to Binance Australia, that single move “reignited investor appetite for risk assets like crypto”, renewing confidence in large-cap digital assets.

“Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 58.1%, supported by US $2.56 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows, while capital rotated away from Ethereum ETFs as investors consolidated into more stable large caps,” Binance Australia told Stockhead.

Not bad for a market everyone said was dead six months ago.

By early October, BTC smashed to new highs above US$125k, before tariffs, bank jitters and liquidation cascades took the air out of the room.

Meanwhile, though, the regulatory tide had also turned. The SEC shortened crypto-ETF approval timelines from 240 to 75 days, with 90-plus new filings in the queue. Even XRP and Dogecoin ETFs (yep, woof) clocked record first-day volumes – proof the institutions are still nibbling away.

Down Under, the pattern echoed global trends: Ethereum was the most-traded asset on Binance Australia for the third consecutive month, followed by Solana and BNB.

It seems then that established blockchains and ecosystems are still ruling the crypto roost. Sometimes you’ve just gotta go with experience for a ‘win now’ mentality … isn’t that right, Aussie Test cricket selectors?

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s latest monthly returns

Okay, okay… know what you’re thinking. But hang tight a little longer – Moonvember is just around the corner… right?

Bank scares, ETF outflows, gold mania and Uncle Sam’s BTC stash

So, October opened hot, then got all political on our asses. And then, it slapped us with a banking-scare flashback.

Two US regionals – Western Alliance and Zions Bank – admitted to dodgy or failed loans, triggering “SVB Collapse 2.0” fears and a global de-risking spree.

All the while, as Bitcoin took the hit, gold was ripping past US$4.4k, and queues were forming outside bullion dealers.

1,000+ people in line for #Gold in Sydney

Sydney, ABC Bullion — Oct 18, 2025

How long till they sell out? pic.twitter.com/HglvnB7pQZ

— Oscar 🇦🇺 (@opanaretto) October 18, 2025

And ETF flows turned sharply negative, with US$530 million in outflows last Thursday alone, the biggest since August. Total weekly outflows were a whopping US$1.2 billion.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Justice reminded everyone who really runs crypto’s biggest wallet. Following a mammoth seizure of 127,271 BTC from Cambodia’s Prince Group, worth roughly US$14 billion, Uncle Sam’s BTC stash ballooned to US$36 billion, up from $22 billion in August.

That now makes the US government one of the top five Bitcoin holders on the planet.

The irony is rich. After years of playing crypto killjoy, the biggest HODLer of them all might just turn out to be the US gov.

How do you like them apples, Elizabeth Warren?

Macro tailwinds: liquidity, cuts and a slow-burn reset

As we’ve established it’s certainly a confusing time in the market, but if there’s a reason bulls haven’t given up at this point, it’s because liquidity – the oxygen of markets – is creeping back into play.

Fed chair Jerome Powell confirmed the other day that the central bank will end quantitative tightening sooner than expected. The Fed’s balance sheet, which has shrunk from US$9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since 2022, oughta stabilise as the rate cuts continue – with two more 25 bps cuts very likely on the cards before year-end.

That dovish pivot is happening amid a global rebound in the M2 money supply, too. Which is something analysts have been banging on about a lot lately.

What the hell is it? In a nutshell, the M2 is the planet’s wallet and it has everything to do with that word again: liquidity.

On a global scale, it’s been rising since mid-2024. More cash sloshing around equals more fuel for risk assets once the panic clears.

Oh, and how about this from that bastion of beige, the IMF (International Monetary Fund)? It just acknowledged that crypto/digital assets are now “a structural component of modern financial innovation rather than a fringe experiment”. Guess this means the grown-ups are starting to finally “get it”?

Add that to softer bond yields, a weakening US dollar, and an ETF pipeline still overflowing and you have an institutional playbook for crypto that simply didn’t exist like this a cycle ago.

It’s a backdrop that screams consolidation, not capitulation.

Perps and DEX wars – okay, what the hell is this?

Down in the on-chain “degen” trenches, it’s Hyperliquid vs Aster, the new-age DEX dogfight.

A DEX – a decentralised exchange – is a trading platform run by code, not a company. “Perps” are its favourite poison: leveraged futures with no expiry, perfect for sleepless degenerates.

Aster, backed by Binance founder CZ and ex-Binance devs, blasted from US$0.07 to US$0.76 in a day as traders dove in. Hyperliquid still leads on real liquidity but faces a US$12 billion token unlock over two years. Sword of Damocles much? That’s some ginormous sell pressure right there.

Then there’s Lighter, another no-fee upstart with a token launch coming later this year – already trading pre-release points for around US$30 a pop.

Degens clearly can’t resist a new casino. The floor’s open for business, even if it is a tad sticky.

Altcoin catalysts: The usual suspects (plus a few wildcards)

If Bitcoin dominance (percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation that belongs to BTC) takes a breather or heads south, the altcoins might finally get their cameo, aka “alt season”.

Among the bigger catalysts for that scenario coming up, then:

• Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade (Dec) – a long-awaited performance overhaul to scale throughput on the Ethereum blockchain and cut gas fees.

• Solana ETFs – US approval odds are rising after the SEC cleared generic altcoin ETF standards last month.

• MetaMask token – Consensys CEO Joe Lubin confirmed a $MASK token airdrop “sooner than expected”. With 100 million users of the popular online wallet and trading system, expect headlines like “Crypto bros get free money”.

• World Liberty Financial (WLFI) – Trump-linked DeFi circus debuting its USD1 stablecoin on Aptos. Could be a Royale Nothingburger with cheese … or not.

• Plasma (XPL) – dumped 50% post-token generation event but stabilised near US$0.90; still backed by Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino.

• Monad – the long-teased, Paradigm-backed layer 1 blockchain launching mainnet before year-end, with a potentially massive $MON airdrop. (“Free money” etc, etc.)

• AI agents and tokenisation – the “agentic economy” now reportedly boasts a US$15 billion market cap; and CMB International just tokenised a US$3.8 billion money-market fund on the BNB Chain.

• Oh, and China’s reportedly cooking up a US$1 billion Ethereum treasury company, led by some of Asia’s earliest ETH whales.

⚡️ JUST IN: Huobi founder Li Lin is launching a $1B Ether trust with early Ethereum backers from Fenbushi Capital, HashKey Group, and Meitu. pic.twitter.com/Mns6DDeIEI

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) October 17, 2025

All up, that’s a pretty damn rich mix of on-chain narratives that could carry us through to the Boxing Day Test match … if macro doesn’t implode in the meantime, that is.

Outlook – is this time different?

Crypto’s classic “four-year cycle” clock is ticking towards its alarm.

Is this time different, though? Many more this time around seem to be saying yes.

But … historically, Q4 of the fourth year has hosted every major cycle top – and while few expect a perfect repeat, the ingredients are uncannily familiar:

• Falling rates – tick

• Rising liquidity – tick

• ETF inflows – tick

• Institutional FOMO creeping in – tick

• The Poms talking smack pre-Ashes – tick in permanent marker

Even after September’s blow-off and October’s tariff tantrum, the structure appears to remain fairly bullish for the fairly immediate future. And maybe an extended cycle isn’t off the cards.

Roughly US$19 billion in longs were liquidated through the mid-October’s carnage. That’s massive, and it flushed out the leverage, giving market the deep cleanse it likely very much needed at this point.

So maybe forget Uptober after all. A bit more global calm, a friendlier Fed, a softer dollar, and we could yet see Moonvember live up to its name.

If there’s one constant in crypto, it’s that volatility equals opportunity – and the honey badger still scarcely gives a rat’s bottom either way.

Binance Australia sponsored this article. Nothing in this article should be construed as financial advice. At the time of writing, the author held Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a handful of other cryptocurrencies.